Premier League
Chelsea vs 
Bournemouth Shots
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 24.5 shots at 55.0%, its strongest read on the Shots market. The total-shots ladder runs from 66.3% for over 22.5 to 32.8% for over 28.5, with over 24.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 55.0%. Head to head on shots, Chelsea are the model’s pick to have more shots at 60.8%, with a level count at 5.5%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 66.3% | 33.7% |
| 24.5 shots | 55.0% | 45.0% |
| 26.5 shots | 43.6% | 56.5% |
| 28.5 shots | 32.8% | 67.2% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
74.0%
59.3%
44.2%
56.4%
39.7%
25.6%
Shot handicap
| Chelsea line | Chelsea | Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 37.8% | 62.2% |
| -2.5 | 49.3% | 50.7% |
| -0.5 | 60.8% | 39.2% |
| +0.5 | 66.3% | 33.7% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 76.1% | 23.9% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 65.3% | 34.7% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 53.7% | 46.4% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 42.3% | 57.7% |
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
First half / second half shots
Shots before and after the break, per game, across the number of games in brackets. The bar shows how much of the shooting happens in the first half. These come from a different source than the match shot totals above, and we only count a match when the shots before the break add up to the actual half-time score. A match where they did not is left out rather than guessed at, which is why the two sets of numbers can differ.
6.6 / 8.0
6.2 / 7.4
This season (2026/27)
14.4Chelsea shots per game14.4Chelsea shots faced per game6.6Chelsea first-half shots8.0Chelsea second-half shots13.6Bournemouth shots per game10.8Bournemouth shots faced per game6.2Bournemouth first-half shots7.4Bournemouth second-half shotsShot volume tracks territory and game state more than the scoreline, below are the model total-shot probabilities. The model leans to Chelsea.
In-depth analysis
These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.
55.0%Over 24.5 shots59.3%Chelsea over 12.5 shots39.7%Bournemouth over 12.5 shots65.3%Over 7.5 on targetSplit by side, Chelsea over 12.5 shots sits at 59.3% and Bournemouth at 39.7%. This season Chelsea have averaged 14.4 shots a game and Bournemouth 13.6. Chelsea take 6.6 shots before half-time and 8.0 after, Bournemouth 6.2 and 7.4.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Chelsea vs Bournemouth?
The model rates over 24.5 total shots at 55.0% for Chelsea vs Bournemouth.
Which team will have more shots in Chelsea vs Bournemouth?
The model rates Chelsea to take more shots at 60.8%.
Do Chelsea shoot more in the first or second half?
Chelsea average 6.6 shots before half-time and 8.0 after, this season.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 12,949 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Shots actually happened 56.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 23 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
Our most recent Shots calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Premier League, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
