La Liga
Celta vs 
Santander Shots
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 24.5 shots at 46.0%, its strongest read on the Shots market. The total-shots ladder runs from 58.8% for over 22.5 to 23.6% for over 28.5, with over 24.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 46.0%. Between the two sides, Celta are the model’s pick to have more shots at 60.9%, with a level count at 6.1%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 58.8% | 41.2% |
| 24.5 shots | 46.0% | 54.0% |
| 26.5 shots | 34.0% | 66.0% |
| 28.5 shots | 23.6% | 76.4% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
70.2%
53.3%
36.8%
51.3%
33.2%
19.3%
Shot handicap
| Celta line | Celta | Santander |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 35.4% | 64.6% |
| -2.5 | 48.0% | 52.0% |
| -0.5 | 60.9% | 39.1% |
| +0.5 | 67.0% | 33.0% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 73.7% | 26.3% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 61.5% | 38.5% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 48.6% | 51.4% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 36.4% | 63.6% |
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
First half / second half shots
3.8 / 6.0
6.0 / 5.2
Shots taken before and after half-time, per game, over the games in brackets. The bar is the share taken in the first half. This is Understat shot data with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, counted separately from the match shot totals above, so the two can differ. A match where the split could not be verified is left out rather than guessed.
This season (2026/27)
9.8Celta shots per game12.7Celta shots faced per game3.8Celta first-half shots6.0Celta second-half shots11.2Santander shots per game14.8Santander shots faced per game6.0Santander first-half shots5.2Santander second-half shotsTotal shots follow which side is chasing the game, below are the model total-shot probabilities. More attempts are projected for Celta.
In-depth analysis
46.0%Over 24.5 shots53.3%Celta over 12.5 shots33.2%Santander over 12.5 shots61.5%Over 7.5 on targetFor the team lines, Celta over 12.5 shots sits at 53.3% and Santander at 33.2%. This season Celta have averaged 9.8 shots a game and Santander 11.2. Celta take 3.8 shots before half-time and 6.0 after, Santander 6.0 and 5.2.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Celta vs Santander?
The model rates over 24.5 total shots at 46.0% for Celta vs Santander.
Which team will have more shots in Celta vs Santander?
The model rates Celta to take more shots at 60.9%.
Do Celta shoot more in the first or second half?
Celta average 3.8 shots before half-time and 6.0 after, this season.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 16,699 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Shots actually happened 47.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 17 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More La Liga, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
