AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

Ligue 1
BrestBrestWLLWD
Full time1-2Fri, 23 Oct 202623/1019:45UK12°C · Cloudy
NiceNiceDLWWL

Brest 1-2 Nice cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined55.3%
Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined44.7%

Result

Brest1-2Nice
8 yellow cardsBrest 3, Nice 5
0 red cardsBrest 0, Nice 0
Under 3.5No

We called Under 3.5 at 55.3% and it missed (8 in the match). We called No at 82.6% and it landed (0 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards44.7%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Guillaume Paradis

Recorded match referee.

Guillaume Paradis in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 25 5
Goals 2.48 3.60
Yellow cards 4.20 4.00
Red cards 0.12 0.00
Corners 9.0 10.4
Fouls 25.4 28.4
Both teams scored 48% 60%
Over 2.5 goals 44% 60%
Home wins 44% 20%
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
23 Oct 2026 Brest vs Nice 1-2 3 Yes 8 0 10 29
11 Oct 2026 Troyes vs Marseille 0-2 2 No 5 0 9 29
20 Sep 2026 Auxerre vs Brest 2-1 3 Yes 2 0 11 32
6 Sep 2026 Troyes vs Strasbourg 2-6 8 Yes 2 0 11 22
22 Aug 2026 Toulouse vs Lyon 0-2 2 No 3 0 11 30
17 May 2026 Paris FC vs Paris SG 2-1 3 Yes 3 0 6 17
12 May 2026 Red Star vs RodezLigue 2 2-3 5 Yes 4 1 5 23
3 May 2026 Lille vs Le Havre 1-1 2 Yes 5 0 19 24
19 Apr 2026 Nantes vs Brest 1-1 2 Yes 4 1 11 30
13 Apr 2026 Rodez vs TroyesLigue 2 2-1 3 Yes 6 1 6 22

Guillaume Paradis referee stats

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Brest vs Nice. Slightly more cards are projected for Nice for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 66.5% 33.5%
3.5 cards 44.7% 55.3%
4.5 cards 26.0% 74.0%
5.5 cards 13.2% 86.8%

Who picks up more cards

Brest
33.6%
Level
22.4%
Nice
44.0%

Team cards lines

Brest

Over 1.5
47.1%
Over 2.5
21.3%

Nice

Over 1.5
54.8%
Over 2.5
27.9%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Brest's; Nice gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Brest line Brest Nice
-1.5 16.2% 83.8%
-0.5 33.6% 66.4%
+0.5 56.0% 44.0%
+1.5 76.2% 23.8%

Red card

Any red card17.4%
Brest red card8.1%
Nice red card10.1%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 70.5% 29.5%
22.5 fouls 56.4% 43.6%
24.5 fouls 42.1% 58.0%

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 10,293 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.5% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 44.7%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 66.5% for over 2.5 to 13.2% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 44.7%. Between the two sides, Nice are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 44.0%, with a level count at 22.4%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.

In-depth analysis

For the team lines, Brest over 1.5 cards sits at 47.1% and Nice at 54.8%. A red card for either side is rated at 17.4% (Brest 8.1%, Nice 10.1%).

We publish the model, not a sure thing. We score every call against the result after the match.

44.7%Over 3.5 cards
17.4%Any red card
44.0%Most cards: Nice
47.1%Brest over 1.5 cards
54.8%Nice over 1.5 cards
56.4%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 44.7% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 17.4%, a low-probability event, but one that reshapes every line when it lands.
The DisciplinarianNice are the pick to collect more cards at 44.0%, bookings follow the side defending under pressure.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 3.5 cards: over sits at 44.7%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.

FAQ

How many cards in Brest vs Nice?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 44.7% for Brest vs Nice.
Will there be a red card in Brest vs Nice?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 17.4%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Brest vs Nice?
Before kickoff, the model rated Nice to pick up more cards at 44.0%, with a level count at 22.4%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

More Ligue 1, Cards

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Cards predictions today

Related

Ligue 1Brest fixtures and statsNice fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.