Süper Lig
Besiktas vs 
Kocaelispor Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 65.5%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 82.5% for over 2.5 to 29.5% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 46.5%. On the card count, Kocaelispor are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 49.9%, with a level count at 19.0%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 82.5% | 17.5% |
| 3.5 cards | 65.5% | 34.5% |
| 4.5 cards | 46.5% | 53.5% |
| 5.5 cards | 29.5% | 70.6% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
59.0%
31.9%
71.3%
45.6%
Card handicap
| Besiktas line | Besiktas | Kocaelispor |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 16.3% | 83.7% |
| -0.5 | 31.2% | 68.9% |
| +0.5 | 50.1% | 49.9% |
| +1.5 | 68.8% | 31.2% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 89.4% | 10.6% |
| 22.5 fouls | 80.5% | 19.5% |
| 24.5 fouls | 68.5% | 31.5% |
This season (2026/27)
2.0Besiktas cards per game15.0Besiktas fouls per game1.6Kocaelispor cards per game11.6Kocaelispor fouls per gameThe discipline market is less analysed than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Besiktas vs Kocaelispor. It tips Kocaelispor for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.
65.5%Over 3.5 cards14.6%Any red card59.0%Besiktas over 1.5 cards71.3%Kocaelispor over 1.5 cards80.5%Over 22.5 foulsFor the team lines, Besiktas over 1.5 cards sits at 59.0% and Kocaelispor at 71.3%. A red card for either side is rated at 14.6% (Besiktas 5.2%, Kocaelispor 9.8%). This season Besiktas have averaged 2.0 cards a game and Kocaelispor 1.6.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Besiktas vs Kocaelispor?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 65.5% for Besiktas vs Kocaelispor.
Will there be a red card in Besiktas vs Kocaelispor?
The model rates a red card for either side at 14.6%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Besiktas vs Kocaelispor?
The model rates Kocaelispor to pick up more cards at 49.9%, with a level count at 19.0%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 10,117 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 21 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Süper Lig, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
