Süper Lig
Besiktas vs 
Kocaelispor Over / Under 2.5 Goals
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Under 2.5 goals at 59.7%, its strongest read on the Over / Under 2.5 Goals market. It is driven by both attacks and defences: Besiktas have averaged 2.4 scored and 0.8 conceded, Kocaelispor 1.0 and 0.8 over their recent games. That fits a tighter goals environment: 40.3% for over 2.5 and 67.4% for at least two goals. Their last 2 meetings have averaged 2.5 goals a game. Besiktas have gone over 2.5 in 3 of their last 5, Kocaelispor in 1 of 5. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Total goals, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 89.4% | 10.6% |
| 1.5 goals | 67.4% | 32.6% |
| 2.5 goals | 40.3% | 59.7% |
| 3.5 goals | 20.0% | 80.0% |
| 4.5 goals | 8.4% | 91.6% |
| 5.5 goals | 3.0% | 97.0% |
Team goal lines
80.0%
47.8%
21.9%
49.8%
15.2%
3.3%
First-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 64.9% | 35.2% |
| 1.5 goals | 28.1% | 71.9% |
| 2.5 goals | 8.9% | 91.1% |
Second-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 69.8% | 30.2% |
| 1.5 goals | 33.7% | 66.3% |
| 2.5 goals | 12.0% | 88.0% |
This season (2026/27)
2.4Besiktas goals scored per game0.8Besiktas goals conceded per game60.0%Besiktas Over 2.5 rate1.2Besiktas 1st-half goals per game1.2Kocaelispor goals scored per game0.7Kocaelispor goals conceded per game16.7%Kocaelispor Over 2.5 rate0.4Kocaelispor 1st-half goals per gameGoals distribution
How likely each total number of goals is, according to the model. Every goals market on this page is built from these bars. The 5+ bar covers every result with five goals or more.
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1
2
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5+
In-depth analysis
These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.
40.4%Both Teams to Score40.3%Over 2.5 goalsFor the goal environment, the model sees 40.3% for three or more goals and 67.4% for at least two, painting a lower-scoring picture. Given Besiktas favoured at 59.0%, a close contest often produces chances at both ends.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Besiktas to win. See the full prediction →
Form & head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Besiktas 2 · 0 draws · Kocaelispor 0 · 2.5 goals/game.
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Besiktas vs Kocaelispor?
Our model rates Over 2.5 goals at 40.3% for Besiktas vs Kocaelispor.
Will there be a first-half goal in Besiktas vs Kocaelispor?
The model rates at least one goal before half-time at 64.9%.
How often have Besiktas gone over 2.5 recently?
Besiktas have gone over 2.5 in 3 of their last 5, Kocaelispor in 1 of 5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals accuracy
How our Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 20,722 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Over / Under 2.5 Goals actually happened 47.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 21 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls
Our most recent Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Süper Lig, Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
