Süper Lig
Besiktas vs 
Kocaelispor Double Chance
Part of a bigger picture: see the full match page, where this comes from.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Home or Draw at 84.8%, its strongest read on the Double Chance market. For context, Besiktas are favoured at 59.0%, a competitive game that shapes how this market plays out. Their last 2 meetings have averaged 2.5 goals a game. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Double Chance
Draw no bet
Draw no bet means a draw gives you your stake back. So we take the draw out and share what is left between the two sides.
Winning margin
| Margin | Probability |
|---|---|
| Besiktas by 1 | 26.4% |
| Besiktas by 2 | 18.5% |
| Besiktas by 3+ | 14.1% |
| Kocaelispor by 1 | 11.0% |
| Kocaelispor by 2 | 3.4% |
| Kocaelispor by 3+ | 0.9% |
| Draw | 25.8% |
Goal handicap
| Besiktas line | Besiktas | Kocaelispor |
|---|---|---|
| -2.5 | 14.1% | 86.0% |
| -1.5 | 32.6% | 67.4% |
| -0.5 | 59.0% | 41.0% |
| +0.5 | 84.8% | 15.2% |
This season (2026/27)
2.4Besiktas goals scored per game0.8Besiktas goals conceded per game1.2Kocaelispor goals scored per game0.7Kocaelispor goals conceded per gameDouble chance trades a slice of return for a wider safety net. The highest-probability cover is Besiktas or draw on the model numbers.
In-depth analysis
These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
40.4%Both Teams to Score40.3%Over 2.5 goalsReading the match, Besiktas are favoured at 59.0%. How the game flows often matters more here than the pre-match favourite.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
Form & head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Besiktas 2 · 0 draws · Kocaelispor 0 · 2.5 goals/game.
FAQ
What is the most likely double chance in Besiktas vs Kocaelispor?
Home or Draw is the highest-probability double chance for Besiktas vs Kocaelispor at 84.8%.
What is the draw no bet probability in Besiktas vs Kocaelispor?
With the draw taken out, the model rates Besiktas at 79.5% and Kocaelispor at 20.5%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Double Chance accuracy
How our Double Chance calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 11,075 matches we rated like this one (80–90%), Double Chance actually happened 83.1% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 21 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Double Chance calls
Our most recent Double Chance calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Süper Lig, Double Chance
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
