Besiktas vs Kocaelispor prediction & probabilities (2026-10-11)

Süper Lig

Besiktas vs Kocaelispor Both Teams to Score

2026-10-11 · 17:00
Both Teams to Score59.6%Both teams to score · No
Best predictionBoth teams to score · No · 59.6%A moderate lean, nothing emphatic. Calibrated, not a tip.
60%

model probability

ConvictionModerate

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Both teams to score · No at 59.6%, its strongest read on the Both Teams to Score market. Recent output points the same way: Besiktas have averaged 2.4 scored and 0.8 conceded, Kocaelispor 1.0 and 0.8 over their recent games. That fits a tighter goals environment: 40.3% for over 2.5 and 67.4% for at least two goals. Their last 2 meetings have averaged 2.5 goals a game. Besiktas have seen both teams score in 2 of their last 5, Kocaelispor in 1 of 5. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.

Both Teams to Score

Yes40.4%

★ ModelNo59.6%

Over 2.5 · context40.3%

Recent scoring & conceding (per game)

Besiktas scored

2.4

Besiktas conceded

0.8

Kocaelispor scored

1.0

Kocaelispor conceded

0.8

Each team to score

Besiktas to score80.0%

Besiktas 2+ goals47.8%

Kocaelispor to score49.8%

Kocaelispor 2+ goals15.2%

By half

Both score in 1st half13.1%

Both score in 2nd half17.9%

This season (2026/27)

40.0%Besiktas BTTS rate
40.0%Besiktas clean sheets
2.4Besiktas goals scored per game
16.7%Kocaelispor BTTS rate
50.0%Kocaelispor clean sheets
1.2Kocaelispor goals scored per game

Goals distribution

How likely each total number of goals is, according to the model. Every goals market on this page is built from these bars. The 5+ bar covers every result with five goals or more.

10.6%

0

22.0%

1

27.1%

2

20.3%

3

11.6%

4

7.7%

5+

In-depth analysis

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.

59.0%Favoured: Besiktas
40.4%Both Teams to Score
40.3%Over 2.5 goals

On the goals side, the model sees 40.3% for three or more goals and 67.4% for at least two, painting a lower-scoring picture. Given Besiktas favoured at 59.0%, neither side dominating can mean an end-to-end match.

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The CalibratorRaw model read: 59.6% on Both Teams to Score, graded against real out-of-sample results, no odds attached.
The TacticianProjects a tighter, lower-scoring game from the 40.3% over 2.5 read.
The ScoutBesiktas are the model’s pick on the result at 59.0%, game state shapes how this market plays out.

Match outlook

Besiktas59.0%

Draw25.8%

Kocaelispor15.2%

The model leans Besiktas to win. See the full prediction →

Form & head-to-head

BesiktasWLWWW
KocaelisporLWWWL

Last 2 meetings: Besiktas 2 · 0 draws · Kocaelispor 0 · 2.5 goals/game.

Recent trends

BesiktasBTTS 2/5Over 2.5 3/5
KocaelisporBTTS 1/5Over 2.5 1/5

How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.

FAQ

Will both teams score in Besiktas vs Kocaelispor?
Our calibrated model rates Both Teams to Score at 40.4% for Besiktas vs Kocaelispor.

Will Besiktas score against Kocaelispor?
The model rates Besiktas to score at 80.0% and Kocaelispor to score at 49.8%.

How often have Besiktas seen both teams score recently?
Besiktas have seen both teams score in 2 of their last 5, Kocaelispor in 1 of 5.

How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.

Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.

Both Teams to Score accuracy

How our Both Teams to Score calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

53.3%Best Both Teams to Score call, hit rate
0.0232Calibration error
55,473Matches graded

In 20,276 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Both Teams to Score actually happened 49.5% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 21 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →

Our last 10 Both Teams to Score calls

Our most recent Both Teams to Score calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✓ 58.1%✓ 57.7%✗ 52.4%✗ 50.5%✗ 50.8%✗ 51.4%✗ 50.4%✓ 57.1%✓ 53.6%✗ 50.2%
4 of 10 recent calls hit.
Betis vs Getafe2026-09-17No 58.1%Hit
Malaga vs Villarreal2026-09-17Yes 57.7%Hit
Ath Madrid vs Osasuna2026-09-16Yes 52.4%Miss
La Coruna vs Sevilla2026-09-16Yes 50.5%Miss
Barcelona vs Santander2026-09-16No 50.8%Miss

More Süper Lig, Both Teams to Score

All Both Teams to Score predictions →

Related

Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.