Süper Lig
Besiktas vs 
Kocaelispor Correct Score
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Most likely · 15.6% at 1-0, its strongest read on the Correct Score market. Recent output points the same way: Besiktas have averaged 2.4 scored and 0.8 conceded, Kocaelispor 1.0 and 0.8 over their recent games. That fits a tighter goals environment: 40.3% for over 2.5 and 67.4% for at least two goals. Their last 2 meetings have averaged 2.5 goals a game. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Correct Score
| Scoreline | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1-0 | 15.6% |
| 2-0 | 13.0% |
| 1-1 | 11.7% |
| 0-0 | 10.6% |
| 2-1 | 9.0% |
| 3-0 | 7.0% |
| 0-1 | 6.4% |
| 3-1 | 4.8% |
Score probability grid
| Besiktas \ Kocaelispor | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11% | 6% | 2% | 1% | · | · |
| 1 | 16% | 12% | 4% | 1% | · | · |
| 2 | 13% | 9% | 3% | 1% | · | · |
| 3 | 7% | 5% | 2% | · | · | · |
| 4 | 3% | 2% | 1% | · | · | · |
| 5 | 1% | 1% | · | · | · | · |
Rows = Besiktas goals, columns = Kocaelispor. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 at 15.6%. The grid is the model’s full scoreline distribution, not a single tip, but the shape of every plausible result. Darker cells carry more probability.
Goals distribution
How likely each total number of goals is, according to the model. Every goals market on this page is built from these bars. The 5+ bar covers every result with five goals or more.
0
1
2
3
4
5+
In-depth analysis
Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. We score every call against the result after the match.
40.4%Both Teams to Score40.3%Over 2.5 goalsLooking at totals, the model sees 40.3% for three or more goals and 67.4% for at least two, painting a lower-scoring picture. With Besiktas favoured at 59.0%, neither side dominating can mean an end-to-end match.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
Form & head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Besiktas 2 · 0 draws · Kocaelispor 0 · 2.5 goals/game.
FAQ
What is the most likely score in Besiktas vs Kocaelispor?
The model's most likely scoreline for Besiktas vs Kocaelispor is 1-0 at 15.6%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Overall model accuracy
We don’t yet publish a graded Correct Score-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.
Predictions & track record updated 21 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
AI experts on Correct Score
Open paper-trading picks from our model-strategy experts on this market, a transparent lab, never advice.
| Expert | Pick |
|---|---|
| correct_score v1.0 | Correct score 1-0 |
More Süper Lig, Correct Score
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
