Süper Lig
Besiktas vs 
Kocaelispor Corners
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 9.5 corners at 47.0%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Line by line, the read runs from 72.0% for over 7.5 to 18.2% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 48.0%. On the corner count, Besiktas are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 60.2%, with a level count at 10.2%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Corners
Total corners, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 72.0% | 28.1% |
| 8.5 corners | 60.2% | 39.8% |
| 9.5 corners | 48.0% | 52.0% |
| 10.5 corners | 36.4% | 63.6% |
| 11.5 corners | 26.3% | 73.7% |
| 12.5 corners | 18.2% | 81.9% |
Who wins the corner count
Team corner lines
75.9%
61.3%
46.3%
55.0%
37.7%
23.7%
Corner handicap
| Besiktas line | Besiktas | Kocaelispor |
|---|---|---|
| -3.5 | 28.8% | 71.2% |
| -1.5 | 49.4% | 50.6% |
| -0.5 | 60.2% | 39.8% |
| +0.5 | 70.4% | 29.6% |
This season (2026/27)
8.0Besiktas corners won per game3.6Besiktas corners conceded per game3.2Kocaelispor corners won per game7.2Kocaelispor corners conceded per gameThe corners market rewards teams that camp in the final third, below are the model total-corner probabilities. The model edges Besiktas.
In-depth analysis
These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
48.0%Over 9.5 corners61.3%Besiktas over 4.5 corners37.7%Kocaelispor over 4.5 corners50.0%Odd corner totalFor the team lines, Besiktas over 4.5 corners sits at 61.3% and Kocaelispor at 37.7%. This season Besiktas have averaged 8.0 corners won a game and Kocaelispor 3.2.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many corners in Besiktas vs Kocaelispor?
The model rates over 9.5 total corners at 48.0% for Besiktas vs Kocaelispor.
Which team will win the corner count in Besiktas vs Kocaelispor?
The model rates Besiktas to win the corner count at 60.2%, with a level count at 10.2%.
How many corners do Besiktas and Kocaelispor average this season?
Besiktas have won 8.0 corners a game this season and Kocaelispor 3.2.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 21,621 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Corners actually happened 47.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 21 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Corners calls
Our most recent Corners calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Süper Lig, Corners
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
