Bundesliga
Stuttgart vs 
Dortmund Over / Under 2.5 Goals
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 2.5 goals at 66.9%, its strongest read on the Over / Under 2.5 Goals market. The goals picture is built on form: Stuttgart have averaged 2.6 scored and 2.4 conceded, Dortmund 2.0 and 1.0 over their recent games. That fits an open goals environment: 66.9% for over 2.5 and 86.3% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 3.6 goals a game. Stuttgart have gone over 2.5 in 5 of their last 5, Dortmund in 2 of 5. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Total goals, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 96.3% | 3.7% |
| 1.5 goals | 86.3% | 13.7% |
| 2.5 goals | 66.9% | 33.1% |
| 3.5 goals | 45.2% | 54.8% |
| 4.5 goals | 26.4% | 73.6% |
| 5.5 goals | 13.5% | 86.5% |
Team goal lines
82.4%
51.9%
25.3%
81.8%
50.8%
24.5%
First-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 76.1% | 23.9% |
| 1.5 goals | 41.9% | 58.1% |
| 2.5 goals | 17.4% | 82.6% |
Second-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 87.1% | 12.9% |
| 1.5 goals | 60.8% | 39.2% |
| 2.5 goals | 33.7% | 66.3% |
Goals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
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In-depth analysis
67.9%Both Teams to Score66.9%Over 2.5 goalsFor the goal environment, the model sees 66.9% for three or more goals and 86.3% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. Given Stuttgart favoured at 40.2%, a close contest often produces chances at both ends.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Stuttgart to win. See the full prediction →
Key players
This season’s squad only, rated on recent form; a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Stuttgart 3 · 1 draws · Dortmund 1 · 3.6 goals/game.
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Stuttgart vs Dortmund?
Our model rates Over 2.5 goals at 66.9% for Stuttgart vs Dortmund.
Will there be a first-half goal in Stuttgart vs Dortmund?
The model rates at least one goal before half-time at 76.1%.
How often have Stuttgart gone over 2.5 recently?
Stuttgart have gone over 2.5 in 5 of their last 5, Dortmund in 2 of 5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals accuracy
How our Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 6,496 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Over / Under 2.5 Goals actually happened 62.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 14 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls
The model’s most recent graded Over / Under 2.5 Goals predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Bundesliga, Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.