Bundesliga
Bayern Munich vs 
Union Berlin Over / Under 2.5 Goals
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 2.5 goals at 77.2%, its strongest read on the Over / Under 2.5 Goals market. It is driven by both attacks and defences: Bayern Munich have averaged 2.8 scored and 1.0 conceded, Union Berlin 2.4 and 2.0 over their recent games. That fits an open goals environment: 77.2% for over 2.5 and 91.6% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 3.8 goals a game. Bayern Munich have gone over 2.5 in 3 of their last 5, Union Berlin in 5 of 5. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Total goals, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 98.0% | 2.0% |
| 1.5 goals | 91.6% | 8.4% |
| 2.5 goals | 77.3% | 22.8% |
| 3.5 goals | 58.2% | 41.8% |
| 4.5 goals | 38.8% | 61.2% |
| 5.5 goals | 23.0% | 77.1% |
Team goal lines
95.6%
82.0%
60.9%
60.5%
23.8%
6.8%
First-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 85.9% | 14.1% |
| 1.5 goals | 58.2% | 41.8% |
| 2.5 goals | 31.2% | 68.9% |
Second-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 91.1% | 8.9% |
| 1.5 goals | 69.5% | 30.5% |
| 2.5 goals | 43.5% | 56.5% |
Goals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
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In-depth analysis
58.1%Both Teams to Score77.2%Over 2.5 goalsOn the goals side, the model sees 77.2% for three or more goals and 91.6% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. With Bayern Munich favoured at 81.9%, a one-sided game can cap the goals at one end.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Bayern Munich to win. See the full prediction →
Key players
This season’s squad only, rated on recent form; a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Bayern Munich 3 · 2 draws · Union Berlin 0 · 3.8 goals/game.
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Bayern Munich vs Union Berlin?
Our model rates Over 2.5 goals at 77.2% for Bayern Munich vs Union Berlin.
Will there be a first-half goal in Bayern Munich vs Union Berlin?
The model rates at least one goal before half-time at 85.9%.
How often have Bayern Munich gone over 2.5 recently?
Bayern Munich have gone over 2.5 in 3 of their last 5, Union Berlin in 5 of 5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals accuracy
How our Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 800 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Over / Under 2.5 Goals actually happened 70.5% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls
The model’s most recent graded Over / Under 2.5 Goals predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Bundesliga, Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.