Bundesliga
Ein Frankfurt vs 
Freiburg Over / Under 2.5 Goals
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 2.5 goals at 61.6%, its strongest read on the Over / Under 2.5 Goals market. The goals picture is built on form: Ein Frankfurt have averaged 1.8 scored and 2.8 conceded, Freiburg 2.4 and 1.2 over their recent games. That fits an open goals environment: 61.6% for over 2.5 and 83.0% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 4.2 goals a game. Ein Frankfurt have gone over 2.5 in 5 of their last 5, Freiburg in 3 of 5. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Total goals, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 95.2% | 4.8% |
| 1.5 goals | 83.0% | 17.0% |
| 2.5 goals | 61.6% | 38.4% |
| 3.5 goals | 39.5% | 60.5% |
| 4.5 goals | 21.9% | 78.1% |
| 5.5 goals | 10.6% | 89.4% |
Team goal lines
82.1%
51.4%
25.0%
76.6%
42.9%
18.3%
First-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 74.5% | 25.5% |
| 1.5 goals | 39.7% | 60.3% |
| 2.5 goals | 15.9% | 84.1% |
Second-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 87.2% | 12.8% |
| 1.5 goals | 61.0% | 39.1% |
| 2.5 goals | 33.9% | 66.1% |
Goals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
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In-depth analysis
63.5%Both Teams to Score61.6%Over 2.5 goalsOn the goals side, the model sees 61.6% for three or more goals and 83.0% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. Given Ein Frankfurt favoured at 44.3%, neither side dominating can mean an end-to-end match.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Ein Frankfurt to win. See the full prediction →
Key players
This season’s squad only, rated on recent form; a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Ein Frankfurt 3 · 2 draws · Freiburg 0 · 4.2 goals/game.
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Ein Frankfurt vs Freiburg?
Our model rates Over 2.5 goals at 61.6% for Ein Frankfurt vs Freiburg.
Will there be a first-half goal in Ein Frankfurt vs Freiburg?
The model rates at least one goal before half-time at 74.5%.
How often have Ein Frankfurt gone over 2.5 recently?
Ein Frankfurt have gone over 2.5 in 5 of their last 5, Freiburg in 3 of 5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals accuracy
How our Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 6,496 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Over / Under 2.5 Goals actually happened 62.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 14 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls
The model’s most recent graded Over / Under 2.5 Goals predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Bundesliga, Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.