Eredivisie
AZ Alkmaar vs 
Telstar Double Chance
Part of a bigger picture: see the full match page, where this comes from.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Home or Draw at 81.4%, its strongest read on the Double Chance market. For context, AZ Alkmaar are favoured at 59.9%, a competitive game that shapes how this market plays out. Their last 2 meetings have averaged 2.0 goals a game. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Double Chance
Draw no bet
Draw no bet: the draw is taken out and the remaining probability is split between the two sides.
Winning margin
| Margin | Probability |
|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar by 1 | 22.6% |
| AZ Alkmaar by 2 | 18.3% |
| AZ Alkmaar by 3+ | 19.1% |
| Telstar by 1 | 11.6% |
| Telstar by 2 | 5.0% |
| Telstar by 3+ | 2.0% |
| Draw | 21.5% |
Goal handicap
| AZ Alkmaar line | AZ Alkmaar | Telstar |
|---|---|---|
| -2.5 | 19.1% | 80.9% |
| -1.5 | 37.3% | 62.7% |
| -0.5 | 59.9% | 40.1% |
| +0.5 | 81.4% | 18.6% |
This season (2026/27)
2.8AZ Alkmaar goals scored per game1.0AZ Alkmaar goals conceded per game0.8Telstar goals scored per game1.8Telstar goals conceded per gameTwo of three outcomes covered, lower odds, higher strike rate. The highest-probability cover is AZ Alkmaar or draw on the model numbers.
In-depth analysis
58.7%Both Teams to Score61.7%Over 2.5 goalsFor context, AZ Alkmaar are favoured at 59.9%. We lean on calibration, not the favourite tag.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Form & head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: AZ Alkmaar 2 · 0 draws · Telstar 0 · 2.0 goals/game.
FAQ
What is the most likely double chance in AZ Alkmaar vs Telstar?
Home or Draw is the highest-probability double chance for AZ Alkmaar vs Telstar at 81.4%.
What is the draw no bet probability in AZ Alkmaar vs Telstar?
With the draw taken out, the model rates AZ Alkmaar at 76.4% and Telstar at 23.6%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Double Chance accuracy
How our Double Chance calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 11,072 matches we rated like this one (80–90%), Double Chance actually happened 83.1% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 17 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Double Chance calls
The model’s most recent graded Double Chance predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Eredivisie, Double Chance
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
