Twente vs PSV Eindhoven prediction & probabilities (2026-09-20)

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Twente vs PSV Eindhoven: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 17 Sep 2026

Eredivisie
Twente

WWDWW

Sun, 20 Sep 202613:30UK
PSV Eindhoven

WWWWW

Model’s top convictions

88%

Over 1.5 goals

69%

Over 2.5 goals

69%

Both teams to score

Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Model pick

PSV Eindhoven46.1%

Win probability · fair 2.17

Top signals

Over 1.5 goalsVery likely87.5%Fair 1.14
Over 2.5 goalsLikely69.0%Fair 1.45
Both teams to scoreLikely68.9%Fair 1.45

Model read

Our engine prices PSV Eindhoven at 46% for 20 September 2026. Favourites, yes; certainties, no. Three things stand out in the data: 1) The goals profile is lively: Over 2.5 sits at 69% with both teams to score at 69%. 2) The run in: Twente arrive W4 D1 L1, PSV Eindhoven W5 D1 L0. 3) History adds colour: across the last 5 meetings it is 0 wins for Twente, 0 draws and 5 for PSV Eindhoven at 4.0 goals per match. Discipline says sit it out: no bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

PSV Eindhoven win46.1%@ 2.17
Over 10.5 corners43.5%@ 2.30
Over 11.5 corners34.5%@ 2.90
Medium risk

Twente or draw53.9%@ 1.86
Over 9.5 corners53.2%@ 1.88
Random finds

1-1 correct score9.4%@ 10.68
1-2 correct score8.7%@ 11.44
2-1 correct score7.1%@ 14.04

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Twente

31.3%

Draw

22.6%

PSV Eindhoven

46.1%

Model

no bookmaker price published for this match yet

Goals

Over 1.5Strongest read · Very likely87.5%Fair 1.14
Over 2.5Likely69.0%Fair 1.45
BTTS · YesLikely68.9%Fair 1.45

Corners

Over 8.5 cornersLikely63.2%Fair 1.58
Over 9.5 cornersClose call53.2%Fair 1.88
Over 10.5 cornersUnlikely43.5%Fair 2.30
Over 11.5 cornersUnlikely34.5%Fair 2.90
Most cornersTwente50.7%PSV Eindhoven39.1%

Shots

Over 22.5 shotsLikely73.9%Fair 1.35
Over 24.5 shotsLikely63.7%Fair 1.57
Over 26.5 shotsClose call52.8%Fair 1.90
Over 28.5 shotsUnlikely41.8%Fair 2.39

Recent shot volume

Twente21.7 taken9.8 faced
PSV Eindhoven22.7 taken8.3 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.587.5%2.569.0%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 2.569.0%

Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Form & head-to-head

TwenteWWDWW
PSV EindhovenWWWWW

Last 5 meetings: Twente 0 · 0 draws · PSV Eindhoven 5 · 4.0 goals/game.

2026-05-17PSV Eindhoven 5-1 Twente
2025-08-17Twente 0-2 PSV Eindhoven
2025-04-24Twente 1-3 PSV Eindhoven
2024-12-06PSV Eindhoven 6-1 Twente
2024-03-17PSV Eindhoven 1-0 Twente

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

TwentePSV Eindhoven
League position#4 of 22#2 of 22
Record W-D-L5-1-15-1-0
Current streakW3W5
Points per game2.292.67
Record, home vs away4-0-03-0-0
PPG, home vs away3.003.00
Goals scored per game2.003.67
Goals conceded per game0.711.17
Scored, home vs away2.003.67
Conceded, home vs away0.251.00
1st half goals per game0.831.67
2nd half goals per game1.172.00
Corners won per game7.78.0
Cards per game0.81.3
Fouls per game10.28.2
Red cards this season00
Shots per game21.722.7
Shots faced per game9.88.3
Shots on target per game8.09.2
Over 2.5 rate

42.9%100.0%

BTTS rate

42.9%100.0%

Clean sheets

42.9%0.0%

Rates this season:TwentePSV Eindhoven

League averages this season: 3.93 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 79% · BTTS in 71%. Full league tables & stats →

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Twente win3.19
Draw4.43
PSV Eindhoven win2.17
Both teams to score1.45

Goals

Over 1.5 goals1.14
Over 2.5 goals1.45
Over 3.5 goals2.10
Over 4.5 goals3.50
Twente most3.19
PSV Eindhoven most2.17

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.29
Over 8.5 corners1.49
Over 9.5 corners1.80
Over 10.5 corners2.27
Twente most1.97
PSV Eindhoven most2.55

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.81
Over 3.5 cards3.01
Over 4.5 cards5.82
Over 5.5 cards12.90
Twente most3.95
PSV Eindhoven most1.95

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.16
Over 7.5 SoT1.28
Over 8.5 SoT1.46
Over 9.5 SoT1.72
Twente most2.06
PSV Eindhoven most2.46

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.35
Over 24.5 shots1.57
Over 26.5 shots1.90
Over 28.5 shots2.39
Twente most1.75
PSV Eindhoven most2.67

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls2.97
Over 22.5 fouls4.82
Over 24.5 fouls8.67
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 73.9% Over 24.5 63.7% Over 26.5 52.8% Over 28.5 41.8%
Most: Twente 57.1% Most: PSV Eindhoven 37.5%
Twente Over 13.2 55.6% PSV Eindhoven Over 13.2 41.3%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 86.1% Over 7.5 78.1% Over 8.5 68.6% Over 9.5 58.1%
Most: Twente 48.6% Most: PSV Eindhoven 40.6%
Twente Over 4.2 60.1% PSV Eindhoven Over 4.2 54.5%

Cards

Over 2.5 55.3% Over 3.5 33.2% Over 4.5 17.2%
Most: Twente 25.3% Most: PSV Eindhoven 51.2%
Twente Over 1.8 32.1% PSV Eindhoven Over 1.8 51.9%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Twente clean sheet 14.0%
PSV Eindhoven clean sheet 20.0%
Twente win to nil 10.7%
PSV Eindhoven win to nil 16.7%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 31.3% draw 22.6% away 46.1%
double_chance
1X 53.9% 12 77.4% X2 68.7%
dnb
home 40.5% away 59.5%
btts
yes 68.9% no 31.1%
clean_sheet
home 14.1% away 20.3%
win_to_nil
home 10.8% away 17.0%
winning_margin
home_by_1 16.1% home_by_2 9.3% home_by_3plus 6.0%
away_by_1 19.8% away_by_2 14.0% away_by_3plus 12.3%
correct_score
0-0 3.3% 0-1 5.1% 0-2 5.5%
0-3 3.6% 0-4 1.8% 0-5 0.7%
1-0 4.1% 1-1 9.4% 1-2 8.7%
1-3 5.7% 1-4 2.8% 1-5 1.1%
2-0 3.6% 2-1 7.1% 2-2 7.0%
2-3 4.6% 2-4 2.2% 2-5 0.9%
3-0 1.9% 3-1 3.8% 3-2 3.7%
3-3 2.4% 3-4 1.2% 3-5 0.5%
4-0 0.8% 4-1 1.5% 4-2 1.5%
4-3 1.0% 4-4 0.5% 4-5 0.2%
5-0 0.3% 5-1 0.5% 5-2 0.5%
5-3 0.3% 5-4 0.2% 5-5 0.1%
other 2.1%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 9.4%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 96.7% under_0.5 3.3% over_1.5 87.5%
under_1.5 12.5% over_2.5 69.0% under_2.5 31.0%
over_3.5 47.6% under_3.5 52.4% over_4.5 28.6%
under_4.5 71.4% over_5.5 15.0% under_5.5 85.0%
odd_even
odd 49.1% even 50.9%
team_home
over_0.5 79.7% under_0.5 20.3% over_1.5 47.4%
under_1.5 52.6% over_2.5 21.6% under_2.5 78.4%
team_away
over_0.5 85.9% under_0.5 14.1% over_1.5 58.3%
under_1.5 41.7% over_2.5 31.3% under_2.5 68.7%
most
home 31.3% draw 22.6% away 46.1%
handicap
home_-2.5 6.0% away_+2.5 94.0% home_-1.5 15.3%
away_+1.5 84.8% home_-0.5 31.3% away_+0.5 68.7%
home_+0.5 53.9% away_-0.5 46.1% home_+1.5 73.7%
away_-1.5 26.3% home_+2.5 87.7% away_-2.5 12.3%
total_exact
exact_0 3.3% exact_1 9.2% exact_2 18.5%
exact_3 21.4% exact_4 19.0% exact_5 13.5%
exact_6 8.0% exact_7plus 7.0%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 29.1% draw 32.9% away 38.1%
total
over_0.5 83.3% under_0.5 16.7% over_1.5 53.3%
under_1.5 46.7% over_2.5 26.6% under_2.5 73.4%
btts
yes 34.6% no 65.4%
total_exact
exact_0 16.7% exact_1 29.9% exact_2 26.7%
exact_3 15.9% exact_4plus 10.7%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 24.9% draw 32.4% away 42.7%
total
over_0.5 83.2% under_0.5 16.8% over_1.5 53.3%
under_1.5 46.7% over_2.5 26.6% under_2.5 73.4%
btts
yes 33.8% no 66.2%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 19.3% H/D 5.9% H/A 3.8%
D/H 8.2% D/D 10.7% D/A 14.1%
A/H 1.9% A/D 4.8% A/A 31.4%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 77.7% under_7.5 22.3% over_8.5 67.2%
under_8.5 32.8% over_9.5 55.7% under_9.5 44.3%
over_10.5 44.1% under_10.5 55.9% over_11.5 33.4%
under_11.5 66.6% over_12.5 24.2% under_12.5 75.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 73.7% under_3.5 26.3% over_4.5 59.1%
under_4.5 40.9% over_5.5 44.5% under_5.5 55.5%
team_away
over_3.5 66.2% under_3.5 33.8% over_4.5 50.2%
under_4.5 49.8% over_5.5 35.6% under_5.5 64.5%
most
home 50.9% draw 9.9% away 39.2%
handicap
home_-3.5 23.3% away_+3.5 76.7% home_-1.5 40.9%
away_+1.5 59.1% home_-0.5 50.9% away_+0.5 49.1%
home_+0.5 60.8% away_-0.5 39.2% home_+1.5 70.0%
away_-1.5 30.0% home_+3.5 84.7% away_-3.5 15.3%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 73.9% under_22.5 26.1% over_24.5 63.7%
under_24.5 36.3% over_26.5 52.8% under_26.5 47.2%
over_28.5 41.8% under_28.5 58.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 76.7% under_10.5 23.3% over_12.5 62.9%
under_12.5 37.1% over_14.5 48.2% under_14.5 51.8%
team_away
over_10.5 65.0% under_10.5 35.0% over_12.5 49.0%
under_12.5 51.0% over_14.5 34.2% under_14.5 65.8%
most
home 57.1% draw 5.4% away 37.5%
handicap
home_-4.5 35.1% away_+4.5 64.9% home_-2.5 46.0%
away_+2.5 54.0% home_-0.5 57.1% away_+0.5 42.9%
home_+0.5 62.6% away_-0.5 37.5% home_+2.5 72.6%
away_-2.5 27.4% home_+4.5 81.1% away_-4.5 18.9%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 86.1% under_6.5 13.9% over_7.5 78.1%
under_7.5 21.9% over_8.5 68.6% under_8.5 31.4%
over_9.5 58.1% under_9.5 41.9%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 74.7% under_3.5 25.3% over_4.5 60.1%
under_4.5 39.9% over_5.5 45.3% under_5.5 54.7%
team_away
over_3.5 70.1% under_3.5 29.9% over_4.5 54.5%
under_4.5 45.5% over_5.5 39.5% under_5.5 60.5%
most
home 48.6% draw 10.8% away 40.6%
handicap
home_-2.5 28.3% away_+2.5 71.7% home_-0.5 48.6%
away_+0.5 51.4% home_+0.5 59.4% away_-0.5 40.6%
home_+2.5 78.2% away_-2.5 21.8%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 55.3% under_2.5 44.7% over_3.5 33.3%
under_3.5 66.8% over_4.5 17.2% under_4.5 82.8%
over_5.5 7.8% under_5.5 92.3%
odd_even
odd 49.8% even 50.2%
team_home
over_1.5 32.1% under_1.5 67.9% over_2.5 11.3%
under_2.5 88.7%
team_away
over_1.5 51.9% under_1.5 48.1% over_2.5 25.8%
under_2.5 74.2%
most
home 25.3% draw 23.5% away 51.2%
handicap
home_-1.5 10.1% away_+1.5 89.9% home_-0.5 25.3%
away_+0.5 74.7% home_+0.5 48.8% away_-0.5 51.2%
home_+1.5 71.7% away_-1.5 28.3%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 33.7% under_20.5 66.3% over_22.5 20.7%
under_22.5 79.3% over_24.5 11.5% under_24.5 88.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 40.0% under_9.5 60.0% over_11.5 20.5%
under_11.5 79.5% over_13.5 8.8% under_13.5 91.2%
team_away
over_9.5 50.7% under_9.5 49.3% over_11.5 29.4%
under_11.5 70.6% over_13.5 14.4% under_13.5 85.6%
most
home 38.4% draw 8.3% away 53.3%
handicap
home_-3.5 17.5% away_+3.5 82.5% home_-0.5 38.4%
away_+0.5 61.6% home_+2.5 63.4% away_-2.5 36.6%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 7.8% no 92.2%
home
yes 3.8% no 96.2%
away
yes 4.1% no 95.9%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0096 (55405 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Twente predictions · PSV Eindhoven predictions · Eredivisie

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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EredivisieTwentePSV EindhovenTrack record