Eredivisie
AZ Alkmaar vs 
Telstar Over / Under 2.5 Goals
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 2.5 goals at 61.7%, its strongest read on the Over / Under 2.5 Goals market. It is driven by both attacks and defences: AZ Alkmaar have averaged 3.0 scored and 1.2 conceded, Telstar 0.6 and 2.0 over their recent games. That fits an open goals environment: 61.7% for over 2.5 and 83.1% for at least two goals. Their last 2 meetings have averaged 2.0 goals a game. AZ Alkmaar have gone over 2.5 in 3 of their last 5, Telstar in 3 of 5. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Total goals, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 95.4% | 4.6% |
| 1.5 goals | 83.1% | 16.9% |
| 2.5 goals | 61.7% | 38.3% |
| 3.5 goals | 39.5% | 60.6% |
| 4.5 goals | 21.7% | 78.3% |
| 5.5 goals | 10.4% | 89.6% |
Team goal lines
87.6%
61.9%
34.9%
66.4%
29.7%
9.8%
First-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 69.3% | 30.7% |
| 1.5 goals | 33.0% | 67.0% |
| 2.5 goals | 11.6% | 88.4% |
Second-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 85.2% | 14.8% |
| 1.5 goals | 56.9% | 43.1% |
| 2.5 goals | 29.9% | 70.1% |
This season (2026/27)
2.8AZ Alkmaar goals scored per game1.0AZ Alkmaar goals conceded per game50.0%AZ Alkmaar Over 2.5 rate0.8AZ Alkmaar 1st-half goals per game0.8Telstar goals scored per game1.8Telstar goals conceded per game66.7%Telstar Over 2.5 rate0.3Telstar 1st-half goals per gameGoals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
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In-depth analysis
58.7%Both Teams to Score61.7%Over 2.5 goalsLooking at totals, the model sees 61.7% for three or more goals and 83.1% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. Given AZ Alkmaar favoured at 59.9%, a close contest often produces chances at both ends.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans AZ Alkmaar to win. See the full prediction →
Form & head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: AZ Alkmaar 2 · 0 draws · Telstar 0 · 2.0 goals/game.
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Will there be over 2.5 goals in AZ Alkmaar vs Telstar?
Our model rates Over 2.5 goals at 61.7% for AZ Alkmaar vs Telstar.
Will there be a first-half goal in AZ Alkmaar vs Telstar?
The model rates at least one goal before half-time at 69.3%.
How often have AZ Alkmaar gone over 2.5 recently?
AZ Alkmaar have gone over 2.5 in 3 of their last 5, Telstar in 3 of 5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals accuracy
How our Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 6,517 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Over / Under 2.5 Goals actually happened 62.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 17 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls
The model’s most recent graded Over / Under 2.5 Goals predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Eredivisie, Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
