Eredivisie
AZ Alkmaar vs 
Telstar Shots
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 24.5 shots at 63.8%, its strongest read on the Shots market. The total-shots ladder runs from 74.0% for over 22.5 to 41.6% for over 28.5, with over 26.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 52.7%. Between the two sides, AZ Alkmaar are the model’s pick to have more shots at 65.8%, with a level count at 5.0%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 74.0% | 26.0% |
| 24.5 shots | 63.8% | 36.2% |
| 26.5 shots | 52.7% | 47.3% |
| 28.5 shots | 41.6% | 58.4% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
81.1%
68.5%
54.4%
58.8%
42.2%
28.0%
Shot handicap
| AZ Alkmaar line | AZ Alkmaar | Telstar |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 43.7% | 56.4% |
| -2.5 | 54.9% | 45.1% |
| -0.5 | 65.8% | 34.2% |
| +0.5 | 70.8% | 29.2% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 84.5% | 15.5% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 75.9% | 24.1% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 65.9% | 34.1% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 55.2% | 44.8% |
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
This season (2026/27)
19.8AZ Alkmaar shots per game9.0AZ Alkmaar shots faced per game8.7Telstar shots per game18.0Telstar shots faced per gameShot counts move with pressure, not with the result, below are the model total-shot probabilities. The model leans to AZ Alkmaar.
In-depth analysis
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
63.8%Over 24.5 shots68.5%AZ Alkmaar over 12.5 shots42.2%Telstar over 12.5 shots75.9%Over 7.5 on targetSplit by side, AZ Alkmaar over 12.5 shots sits at 68.5% and Telstar at 42.2%. This season AZ Alkmaar have averaged 19.8 shots a game and Telstar 8.7.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in AZ Alkmaar vs Telstar?
The model rates over 24.5 total shots at 63.8% for AZ Alkmaar vs Telstar.
Which team will have more shots in AZ Alkmaar vs Telstar?
The model rates AZ Alkmaar to take more shots at 65.8%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 2,757 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Shots actually happened 65.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 18 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Eredivisie, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
