AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

Ligue 1
AuxerreAuxerreLWWLW
Full time1-1Sun, 25 Oct 202625/1016:15UK15°C · Clearing
Le MansLe MansDDWLL

Auxerre 1-1 Le Mans cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined54%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined46%

Result

Auxerre1-1Le Mans
3 yellow cardsAuxerre 1, Le Mans 2
0 red cardsAuxerre 0, Le Mans 0
Over 3.5No

We called Over 3.5 at 54.0% and it missed (3 in the match). We called No at 84.2% and it landed (0 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards54.0%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Willy Delajod

Recorded match referee.

Willy Delajod in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 24 6
Goals 2.58 2.83
Yellow cards 3.08 3.33
Red cards 0.17 0.00
Corners 8.8 10.2
Fouls 24.0 22.0
Both teams scored 42% 67%
Over 2.5 goals 42% 50%
Home wins 38% 50%
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
25 Oct 2026 Auxerre vs Le Mans 1-1 2 Yes 3 0 8 27
17 Oct 2026 Strasbourg vs Paris SG 1-3 4 Yes 2 0 9 18
11 Oct 2026 Rennes vs Auxerre 4-1 5 Yes 4 0 17 23
20 Sep 2026 Nice vs Lille 2-1 3 Yes 4 0 10 25
13 Sep 2026 Brest vs Paris SG 0-1 1 No 3 0 5 20
30 Aug 2026 Monaco vs Marseille 2-0 2 No 4 0 12 19
17 May 2026 Lille vs Auxerre 0-2 2 No 5 0 6 25
26 Apr 2026 Marseille vs Nice 1-1 2 Yes 5 0 8 21
11 Apr 2026 Auxerre vs Nantes 0-0 0 No 4 0 5 35
21 Mar 2026 Nice vs Paris SG 0-4 4 No 1 1 7 17

Willy Delajod referee stats

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Auxerre vs Le Mans. The model leans toward Le Mans for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 74.2% 25.8%
3.5 cards 54.0% 46.0%
4.5 cards 34.5% 65.5%
5.5 cards 19.5% 80.6%

Who picks up more cards

Auxerre
31.1%
Level
20.6%
Le Mans
48.3%

Team cards lines

Auxerre

Over 1.5
51.1%
Over 2.5
24.6%

Le Mans

Over 1.5
63.4%
Over 2.5
36.5%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Auxerre's; Le Mans gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Auxerre line Auxerre Le Mans
-1.5 15.3% 84.7%
-0.5 31.1% 68.9%
+0.5 51.7% 48.3%
+1.5 71.6% 28.4%

Red card

Any red card15.9%
Auxerre red card6.1%
Le Mans red card10.4%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 77.8% 22.3%
22.5 fouls 65.2% 34.8%
24.5 fouls 51.3% 48.7%
AuxerreAuxerre

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Auxerre at home and Le Mans away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

Le MansLe Mans
Statistic
Auxerre
Le Mans
Yellow cards per game
1.6
2.0

First-half yellow cards per game
0.4
0.4

Second-half yellow cards per game
1.2
1.6

Matches with card data
1
1

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 11,337 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 54.0%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 74.2% for over 2.5 to 19.5% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 54.0%. Between the two sides, Le Mans are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 48.3%, with a level count at 20.6%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.

In-depth analysis

By team, Auxerre over 1.5 cards sits at 51.1% and Le Mans at 63.4%. A red card for either side is rated at 15.9% (Auxerre 6.1%, Le Mans 10.4%).

Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. The track record is public, misses included.

54.0%Over 3.5 cards
15.9%Any red card
48.3%Most cards: Le Mans
51.1%Auxerre over 1.5 cards
63.4%Le Mans over 1.5 cards
65.2%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 54.0% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 15.9%, unlikely, and priced as such.
The DisciplinarianLe Mans are the pick to collect more cards at 48.3%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 3.5 cards: over sits at 54.0%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
AuxerreAuxerre

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

Le MansLe Mans
Statistic
Auxerre
Le Mans
fouls per game
14.6
14.4

Bar scales · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Auxerre vs Le Mans?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 54.0% for Auxerre vs Le Mans.
Will there be a red card in Auxerre vs Le Mans?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 15.9%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Auxerre vs Le Mans?
Before kickoff, the model rated Le Mans to pick up more cards at 48.3%, with a level count at 20.6%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Cards predictions today

Related

Ligue 1Auxerre fixtures and statsLe Mans fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.