AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 13 Oct 2026

Bundesliga
AugsburgAugsburgLWWDL
Full time2-2Sat, 10 Oct 202610/1014:30UK13°C · Rain
Bayern MunichBayern MunichWWDWW

Augsburg 2-2 Bayern Munich cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined54.2%
Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined45.8%

Result

Augsburg2-2Bayern Munich
3 yellow cardsAugsburg 3, Bayern Munich 0
0 red cardsAugsburg 0, Bayern Munich 0
Under 3.5No

We called Under 3.5 at 54.2% and it landed (3 in the match). We called No at 87.9% and it landed (0 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards45.8%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Augsburg vs Bayern Munich. It tips Augsburg for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 67.5% 32.6%
3.5 cards 45.8% 54.2%
4.5 cards 27.0% 73.0%
5.5 cards 13.9% 86.1%

Who picks up more cards

Augsburg
42.6%
Level
22.3%
Bayern Munich
35.1%

Team cards lines

Augsburg

Over 1.5
54.5%
Over 2.5
27.7%

Bayern Munich

Over 1.5
49.0%
Over 2.5
22.9%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Augsburg's; Bayern Munich gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Augsburg line Augsburg Bayern Munich
-1.5 22.9% 77.1%
-0.5 42.6% 57.4%
+0.5 64.9% 35.1%
+1.5 82.6% 17.4%

Red card

Any red card12.1%
Augsburg red card4.9%
Bayern Munich red card7.5%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 41.9% 58.1%
22.5 fouls 30.2% 69.8%
24.5 fouls 20.6% 79.4%

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 10,293 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.5% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 45.8%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 67.5% for over 2.5 to 13.9% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 45.8%. Between the two sides, Augsburg are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 42.6%, with a level count at 22.3%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.

In-depth analysis

By team, Augsburg over 1.5 cards sits at 54.5% and Bayern Munich at 49.0%. A red card for either side is rated at 12.1% (Augsburg 4.9%, Bayern Munich 7.5%).

We publish the model, not a sure thing. We score every call against the result after the match.

45.8%Over 3.5 cards
12.1%Any red card
42.6%Most cards: Augsburg
54.5%Augsburg over 1.5 cards
49.0%Bayern Munich over 1.5 cards
30.2%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 45.8% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 12.1%, a low-probability event, but one that reshapes every line when it lands.
The DisciplinarianAugsburg are the pick to collect more cards at 42.6%, bookings follow the side defending under pressure.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 3.5 cards: over sits at 45.8%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.

FAQ

How many cards in Augsburg vs Bayern Munich?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 45.8% for Augsburg vs Bayern Munich.
Will there be a red card in Augsburg vs Bayern Munich?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 12.1%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Augsburg vs Bayern Munich?
Before kickoff, the model rated Augsburg to pick up more cards at 42.6%, with a level count at 22.3%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

BundesligaAugsburg fixtures and statsBayern Munich fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.