AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 13 Oct 2026

Bundesliga
AugsburgAugsburgLWWDL
Full time2-2Sat, 10 Oct 202610/1014:30UK13°C · Rain
Bayern MunichBayern MunichWWDWW

Augsburg 2-2 Bayern Munich corners: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined54%
Under 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined46%

Result

Augsburg2-2Bayern Munich
14 cornersAugsburg 5, Bayern Munich 9
Over 9.5

We called Over 9.5 at 54.0% and it landed (14 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 9.5 corners54.0%

Corners

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Corners track territory and shot volume more than the scoreline, below are the model total-corner probabilities. The model edges Augsburg.

Total corners

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
7.5 corners 76.7% 23.3%
8.5 corners 65.8% 34.2%
9.5 corners 54.0% 46.0%
10.5 corners 42.2% 57.8%
11.5 corners 31.5% 68.5%
12.5 corners 22.4% 77.6%

Who wins the corner count

Augsburg
47.4%
Level
10.7%
Bayern Munich
41.9%

Team corners lines

Augsburg

Over 3.5
72.0%
Over 4.5
56.3%
Over 5.5
40.9%

Bayern Munich

Over 3.5
68.5%
Over 4.5
52.1%
Over 5.5
36.7%

Corner handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Augsburg's; Bayern Munich gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Augsburg line Augsburg Bayern Munich
-1.5 36.9% 63.1%
-0.5 47.4% 52.6%
+0.5 58.1% 41.9%
+1.5 68.3% 31.7%

Corners accuracy

How our Corners calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

54.0%Best Corners call, hit rate
0.0095Calibration error
50,938Matches graded

In 24,028 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Corners actually happened 54.2% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Corners calls

Our most recent Corners calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 55.9%✓ 52.1%✓ 53.5%✓ 50.6%✓ 53.9%✗ 51.1%✗ 50.7%✗ 58.3%✓ 55.7%✗ 59.5%
5 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Under 9.5 55.9%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Over 9.5 52.1%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Under 9.5 53.5%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Under 9.5 50.6%Hit
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Under 9.5 53.9%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 9.5 corners at 54.0%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Line by line, the read runs from 76.7% for over 7.5 to 22.4% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 54.0%. Head to head on corners, Augsburg are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 47.4%, with a level count at 10.7%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.

In-depth analysis

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. We score every call against the result after the match.

54.0%Over 9.5 corners
47.4%Most corners: Augsburg
56.3%Augsburg over 4.5 corners
52.1%Bayern Munich over 4.5 corners
50.0%Odd corner total

By team, Augsburg over 4.5 corners sits at 56.3% and Bayern Munich at 52.1%.

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 54.0% on Corners. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Territory ReaderAugsburg are the pick to win the corner count at 47.4%, the count usually goes the way of the side doing the attacking.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 9.5 corners: over sits at 54.0%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.

FAQ

How many corners in Augsburg vs Bayern Munich?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 9.5 total corners at 54.0% for Augsburg vs Bayern Munich.
Which team will win the corner count in Augsburg vs Bayern Munich?
Before kickoff, the model rated Augsburg to win the corner count at 47.4%, with a level count at 10.7%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

More Bundesliga, Corners

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Corner predictions today

Related

BundesligaAugsburg fixtures and statsBayern Munich fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.