La Liga
Ath Madrid vs 
Real Madrid Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 57.9%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 76.6% for over 2.5 to 23.6% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 57.9%. Head to head on cards, Ath Madrid are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 42.8%, with a level count at 19.9%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 76.6% | 23.4% |
| 3.5 cards | 57.9% | 42.1% |
| 4.5 cards | 39.1% | 60.9% |
| 5.5 cards | 23.6% | 76.4% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
61.7%
35.6%
57.8%
31.7%
Card handicap
| Ath Madrid line | Ath Madrid | Real Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 24.9% | 75.1% |
| -0.5 | 42.8% | 57.2% |
| +0.5 | 62.7% | 37.3% |
| +1.5 | 79.4% | 20.6% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 64.5% | 35.5% |
| 22.5 fouls | 50.1% | 50.0% |
| 24.5 fouls | 36.1% | 63.9% |
This season (2026/27)
1.8Ath Madrid cards per game11.2Ath Madrid fouls per game1.8Real Madrid cards per game8.8Real Madrid fouls per gameThe discipline market is less analysed than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Ath Madrid vs Real Madrid. The model leans toward Ath Madrid for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
57.9%Over 3.5 cards19.1%Any red card61.7%Ath Madrid over 1.5 cards57.8%Real Madrid over 1.5 cards50.1%Over 22.5 foulsBy team, Ath Madrid over 1.5 cards sits at 61.7% and Real Madrid at 57.8%. A red card for either side is rated at 19.1% (Ath Madrid 15.0%, Real Madrid 4.9%). This season Ath Madrid have averaged 1.8 cards a game and Real Madrid 1.8.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Ath Madrid vs Real Madrid?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 57.9% for Ath Madrid vs Real Madrid.
Will there be a red card in Ath Madrid vs Real Madrid?
The model rates a red card for either side at 19.1%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Ath Madrid vs Real Madrid?
The model rates Ath Madrid to pick up more cards at 42.8%, with a level count at 19.9%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 11,115 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 18 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More La Liga, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
