La Coruna vs Betis: model prediction
La Liga
La CorunaDWWDL
BetisWLWWW
Over 1.5 goals
Draw or Betis
Over 8.5 corners
Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Win probability · fair 2.19
Top signals
Model read
La Coruna versus Betis on 20 September 2026 tilts towards Betis in our numbers (46%), with plenty left over for the other outcomes. Three things stand out in the data: 1) No strong lean on goals (52% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. 2) Form guide over the last six: La Coruna W2 D3 L1, Betis W5 D0 L1. 3) For shots markets, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang is the obvious watch at 1.5 on target per 90 in recent data. As a promoted side, La Coruna carry exactly the structural uncertainty our priors were built for. The recent series reads 0 wins for La Coruna, 3 draws and 2 for Betis over 5 games, 2.0 goals on average. Verdict: no bet. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
28.3%
26.0%
45.7%
no bookmaker price published for this match yet
Goals
Corners
Shots
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
First half / second half shots
Shots taken before and after half-time, per game, over the games in brackets. The bar is the share taken in the first half. This is Understat shot data with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, counted separately from the match shot totals above, so the two can differ. A match where the split could not be verified is left out rather than guessed.
3.2 / 4.6
9.3 / 9.2
Totals line guide
Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: La Coruna 0 · 3 draws · Betis 2 · 2.0 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
La CorunaBetis33.3%33.3%
83.3%33.3%
0.0%66.7%
League averages this season: 3.05 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 56% · BTTS in 56%. Full league tables & stats →
Players to watch
Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots
| Over 22.5 | 63.3% | Over 24.5 | 50.7% | Over 26.5 | 38.4% | Over 28.5 | 27.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: La Coruna | 58.2% | Most: Betis | 35.7% | ||||
| La Coruna Over 13.2 | 46.2% | Betis Over 13.2 | 30.4% |
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 80.3% | Over 7.5 | 69.7% | Over 8.5 | 57.7% | Over 9.5 | 45.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: La Coruna | 51.3% | Most: Betis | 36.5% | ||||
| La Coruna Over 4.2 | 54.3% | Betis Over 4.2 | 43.6% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 77.7% | Over 3.5 | 59.4% | Over 4.5 | 40.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: La Coruna | 39.6% | Most: Betis | 40.6% | ||
| La Coruna Over 1.8 | 60.5% | Betis Over 1.8 | 61.1% |
La Coruna: players to watch (recent-form projection)
O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.
| Player | Shots/90 | SoT/90 | Goals/90 | 1+ SoT | 2+ shots | To score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang | 2.57 | 1.47 | 0.53 | 69.6% | 61.6% | 34.9% |
| Luismi Cruz | 0.98 | 0.98 | 0.39 | 51.2% | 16.2% | 24.8% |
| Adama Traoré | 1.69 | 0.48 | 0.05 | 15.3% | 11.7% | 1.7% |
| Angelino | 0.73 | 0.22 | 0.05 | 17.5% | 13.5% | 4.3% |
| Mario Soriano | 0.91 | 0.18 | 0 | 13.1% | 16.0% | 0.0% |
Betis: players to watch (recent-form projection)
O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.
| Player | Shots/90 | SoT/90 | Goals/90 | 1+ SoT | 2+ shots | To score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antony | 3.46 | 1.34 | 0.26 | 65.6% | 76.2% | 18.7% |
| Pablo García | 3.47 | 1.26 | 0.32 | 29.3% | 24.8% | 8.4% |
| Abdessamad Ezzalzouli | 2.74 | 1.04 | 0.25 | 55.8% | 63.3% | 17.8% |
| Giovani Lo Celso | 2.05 | 0.96 | 0.32 | 45.8% | 37.6% | 18.5% |
| Juan Camilo Hernández | 3.01 | 0.89 | 0.37 | 53.9% | 73.7% | 27.6% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
| La Coruna clean sheet | 21.2% |
|---|---|
| Betis clean sheet | 29.5% |
| La Coruna win to nil | 14.3% |
| Betis win to nil | 22.6% |
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 29.3% | draw | 26.3% | away | 44.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 55.6% | 12 | 73.7% | X2 | 70.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 39.8% | away | 60.3% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 55.9% | no | 44.1% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 21.3% | away | 29.7% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 14.4% | away | 22.8% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 16.9% | home_by_2 | 8.4% | home_by_3plus | 4.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 21.7% | away_by_2 | 13.6% | away_by_3plus | 9.1% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 6.9% | 0-1 | 9.2% | 0-2 | 7.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 3.9% | 0-4 | 1.5% | 0-5 | 0.5% |
| 1-0 | 7.1% | 1-1 | 12.5% | 1-2 | 9.2% |
| 1-3 | 4.7% | 1-4 | 1.8% | 1-5 | 0.6% |
| 2-0 | 4.7% | 2-1 | 7.2% | 2-2 | 5.6% |
| 2-3 | 2.9% | 2-4 | 1.1% | 2-5 | 0.4% |
| 3-0 | 1.9% | 3-1 | 2.9% | 3-2 | 2.3% |
| 3-3 | 1.2% | 3-4 | 0.4% | 3-5 | 0.1% |
| 4-0 | 0.6% | 4-1 | 0.9% | 4-2 | 0.7% |
| 4-3 | 0.4% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.1% | 5-1 | 0.2% | 5-2 | 0.2% |
| 5-3 | 0.1% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.7% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 12.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 93.1% | under_0.5 | 6.9% | over_1.5 | 76.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 23.2% | over_2.5 | 52.2% | under_2.5 | 47.9% |
| over_3.5 | 30.0% | under_3.5 | 70.0% | over_4.5 | 14.7% |
| under_4.5 | 85.3% | over_5.5 | 6.2% | under_5.5 | 93.8% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.6% | even | 51.4% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 70.3% | under_0.5 | 29.7% | over_1.5 | 34.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 65.7% | over_2.5 | 12.4% | under_2.5 | 87.6% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 78.7% | under_0.5 | 21.3% | over_1.5 | 45.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 54.2% | over_2.5 | 20.3% | under_2.5 | 79.7% |
most
| home | 29.3% | draw | 26.3% | away | 44.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 4.0% | away_+2.5 | 96.0% | home_-1.5 | 12.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 87.6% | home_-0.5 | 29.3% | away_+0.5 | 70.7% |
| home_+0.5 | 55.6% | away_-0.5 | 44.4% | home_+1.5 | 77.3% |
| away_-1.5 | 22.7% | home_+2.5 | 90.9% | away_-2.5 | 9.1% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 6.9% | exact_1 | 16.3% | exact_2 | 24.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 22.2% | exact_4 | 15.3% | exact_5 | 8.5% |
| exact_6 | 3.9% | exact_7plus | 2.3% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 41.7% | draw | 37.2% | away | 21.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 75.6% | under_0.5 | 24.4% | over_1.5 | 41.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 58.8% | over_2.5 | 16.9% | under_2.5 | 83.1% |
btts
| yes | 24.2% | no | 75.8% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 24.4% | exact_1 | 34.4% | exact_2 | 24.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 11.4% | exact_4plus | 5.5% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 30.5% | draw | 40.5% | away | 29.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 72.1% | under_0.5 | 27.9% | over_1.5 | 36.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 63.5% | over_2.5 | 13.8% | under_2.5 | 86.2% |
btts
| yes | 22.3% | no | 77.7% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 33.0% | H/D | 6.4% | H/A | 2.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 11.4% | D/D | 15.0% | D/A | 10.8% |
| A/H | 1.4% | A/D | 3.9% | A/A | 15.8% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 74.0% | under_7.5 | 26.0% | over_8.5 | 62.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 37.5% | over_9.5 | 50.3% | under_9.5 | 49.7% |
| over_10.5 | 38.5% | under_10.5 | 61.5% | over_11.5 | 28.1% |
| under_11.5 | 71.9% | over_12.5 | 19.5% | under_12.5 | 80.5% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 74.8% | under_3.5 | 25.2% | over_4.5 | 59.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 40.3% | over_5.5 | 44.4% | under_5.5 | 55.6% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 60.5% | under_3.5 | 39.5% | over_4.5 | 43.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 56.8% | over_5.5 | 28.3% | under_5.5 | 71.7% |
most
| home | 55.6% | draw | 10.6% | away | 33.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 24.8% | away_+3.5 | 75.2% | home_-1.5 | 44.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 55.4% | home_-0.5 | 55.6% | away_+0.5 | 44.4% |
| home_+0.5 | 66.2% | away_-0.5 | 33.8% | home_+1.5 | 75.6% |
| away_-1.5 | 24.4% | home_+3.5 | 89.3% | away_-3.5 | 10.7% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 63.3% | under_22.5 | 36.7% | over_24.5 | 50.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 49.3% | over_26.5 | 38.4% | under_26.5 | 61.6% |
| over_28.5 | 27.5% | under_28.5 | 72.5% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 71.4% | under_10.5 | 28.6% | over_12.5 | 54.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 45.3% | over_14.5 | 38.2% | under_14.5 | 61.9% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 56.7% | under_10.5 | 43.3% | over_12.5 | 38.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 61.6% | over_14.5 | 23.4% | under_14.5 | 76.6% |
most
| home | 58.2% | draw | 6.1% | away | 35.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 33.2% | away_+4.5 | 66.8% | home_-2.5 | 45.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 54.5% | home_-0.5 | 58.2% | away_+0.5 | 41.8% |
| home_+0.5 | 64.4% | away_-0.5 | 35.7% | home_+2.5 | 75.4% |
| away_-2.5 | 24.6% | home_+4.5 | 84.3% | away_-4.5 | 15.7% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 80.3% | under_6.5 | 19.7% | over_7.5 | 69.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 30.3% | over_8.5 | 57.7% | under_8.5 | 42.4% |
| over_9.5 | 45.4% | under_9.5 | 54.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 71.1% | under_3.5 | 28.9% | over_4.5 | 54.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 45.7% | over_5.5 | 38.1% | under_5.5 | 61.9% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 61.8% | under_3.5 | 38.2% | over_4.5 | 43.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 56.4% | over_5.5 | 28.0% | under_5.5 | 72.0% |
most
| home | 51.3% | draw | 12.3% | away | 36.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 27.7% | away_+2.5 | 72.3% | home_-0.5 | 51.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 48.7% | home_+0.5 | 63.5% | away_-0.5 | 36.5% |
| home_+2.5 | 83.5% | away_-2.5 | 16.6% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 77.7% | under_2.5 | 22.3% | over_3.5 | 59.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 40.6% | over_4.5 | 40.6% | under_4.5 | 59.4% |
| over_5.5 | 24.9% | under_5.5 | 75.1% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 60.5% | under_1.5 | 39.5% | over_2.5 | 34.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 65.6% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 61.1% | under_1.5 | 38.9% | over_2.5 | 35.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 64.9% |
most
| home | 39.7% | draw | 19.7% | away | 40.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 22.6% | away_+1.5 | 77.5% | home_-0.5 | 39.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 60.4% | home_+0.5 | 59.4% | away_-0.5 | 40.6% |
| home_+1.5 | 76.7% | away_-1.5 | 23.3% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 73.9% | under_20.5 | 26.1% | over_22.5 | 60.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 39.2% | over_24.5 | 46.9% | under_24.5 | 53.1% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 77.0% | under_9.5 | 23.0% | over_11.5 | 58.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 41.2% | over_13.5 | 39.8% | under_13.5 | 60.2% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 68.9% | under_9.5 | 31.1% | over_11.5 | 48.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 51.4% | over_13.5 | 30.0% | under_13.5 | 70.0% |
most
| home | 53.7% | draw | 7.0% | away | 39.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 33.1% | away_+3.5 | 66.9% | home_-0.5 | 53.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 46.3% | home_+2.5 | 73.4% | away_-2.5 | 26.6% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 18.9% | no | 81.1% |
|---|
home
| yes | 16.2% | no | 83.8% |
|---|
away
| yes | 3.2% | no | 96.8% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55416 matches).
More: La Coruna predictions · Betis predictions · La Liga
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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