Ath Madrid vs Real Madrid: model prediction
La Liga
Ath MadridDWLWW
Real MadridWWLWW
Over 1.5 goals
Draw or Real Madrid
Over 8.5 corners
Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Win probability · fair 2.56
Top signals
Model read
Ath Madrid versus Real Madrid in the La Liga on 20 September 2026 is finely balanced. Real Madrid edge it at 39%, but the gap to the field is slim. Three angles decide this preview: 1) No strong lean on goals (58% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. 2) For shots markets, Julián Álvarez is the obvious watch at 1.3 on target per 90 in recent data. 3) History adds colour: across the last 5 meetings it is 1 wins for Ath Madrid, 3 draws and 1 for Real Madrid at 3.6 goals per match. Recent form reads W4 D1 L1 for Ath Madrid against W5 D0 L1 for Real Madrid. The forecast adds a wrinkle: 30 degrees of heat. Verdict: no bet. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
36.3%
24.7%
39.0%
no bookmaker price published for this match yet
Goals
Corners
Shots
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
First half / second half shots
Shots taken before and after half-time, per game, over the games in brackets. The bar is the share taken in the first half. This is Understat shot data with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, counted separately from the match shot totals above, so the two can differ. A match where the split could not be verified is left out rather than guessed.
8.3 / 8.5
10.2 / 10.5
Totals line guide
Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Ath Madrid 1 · 3 draws · Real Madrid 1 · 3.6 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
Ath MadridReal Madrid83.3%83.3%
33.3%66.7%
50.0%16.7%
League averages this season: 3.05 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 56% · BTTS in 56%. Full league tables & stats →
Players to watch
Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots
| Over 22.5 | 65.2% | Over 24.5 | 52.8% | Over 26.5 | 40.5% | Over 28.5 | 29.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Ath Madrid | 59.6% | Most: Real Madrid | 34.4% | ||||
| Ath Madrid Over 13.2 | 48.7% | Real Madrid Over 13.2 | 30.8% |
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 77.7% | Over 7.5 | 66.4% | Over 8.5 | 54.0% | Over 9.5 | 41.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Ath Madrid | 53.3% | Most: Real Madrid | 34.3% | ||||
| Ath Madrid Over 4.2 | 53.2% | Real Madrid Over 4.2 | 39.3% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 76.6% | Over 3.5 | 57.9% | Over 4.5 | 39.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Ath Madrid | 42.8% | Most: Real Madrid | 37.3% | ||
| Ath Madrid Over 1.8 | 61.7% | Real Madrid Over 1.8 | 57.8% |
Ath Madrid: players to watch (recent-form projection)
O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.
| Player | Shots/90 | SoT/90 | Goals/90 | 1+ SoT | 2+ shots | To score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julián Álvarez | 2.57 | 1.33 | 0.51 | 63.3% | 57.7% | 31.9% |
| Jonathan Christian David | 2.52 | 1.12 | 0.48 | 55.8% | 54.8% | 29.5% |
| Ademola Lookman | 2.96 | 0.99 | 0.46 | 52.9% | 65.7% | 29.5% |
| Lee Kang-In | 2.42 | 0.85 | 0.24 | 41.8% | 45.7% | 14.2% |
| Carlos Martín | 1.8 | 0.78 | 0.1 | 35.9% | 27.4% | 5.5% |
Real Madrid: players to watch (recent-form projection)
O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.
| Player | Shots/90 | SoT/90 | Goals/90 | 1+ SoT | 2+ shots | To score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kylian Mbappe-Lottin | 5.06 | 2.45 | 0.96 | 90.3% | 95.3% | 59.9% |
| Carlos Espí | 4.1 | 1.81 | 0.87 | 60.5% | 62.2% | 36.0% |
| Endrick | 3.95 | 1.66 | 0.29 | 55.3% | 57.1% | 13.1% |
| Vinícius Júnior | 3.2 | 1.28 | 0.45 | 66.9% | 76.2% | 32.2% |
| Jude Bellingham | 2.42 | 1.03 | 0.34 | 57.7% | 59.9% | 24.7% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
| Ath Madrid clean sheet | 21.8% |
|---|---|
| Real Madrid clean sheet | 22.6% |
| Ath Madrid win to nil | 16.3% |
| Real Madrid win to nil | 17.0% |
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 36.5% | draw | 25.4% | away | 38.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 61.9% | 12 | 74.6% | X2 | 63.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 48.9% | away | 51.1% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 61.0% | no | 39.0% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 21.9% | away | 22.7% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 16.4% | away | 17.2% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 18.9% | home_by_2 | 10.9% | home_by_3plus | 6.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 19.3% | away_by_2 | 11.5% | away_by_3plus | 7.3% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 5.5% | 0-1 | 7.0% | 0-2 | 5.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 2.9% | 0-4 | 1.1% | 0-5 | 0.3% |
| 1-0 | 6.8% | 1-1 | 11.7% | 1-2 | 8.5% |
| 1-3 | 4.3% | 1-4 | 1.6% | 1-5 | 0.5% |
| 2-0 | 5.5% | 2-1 | 8.3% | 2-2 | 6.3% |
| 2-3 | 3.2% | 2-4 | 1.2% | 2-5 | 0.4% |
| 3-0 | 2.7% | 3-1 | 4.1% | 3-2 | 3.1% |
| 3-3 | 1.6% | 3-4 | 0.6% | 3-5 | 0.2% |
| 4-0 | 1.0% | 4-1 | 1.5% | 4-2 | 1.2% |
| 4-3 | 0.6% | 4-4 | 0.2% | 4-5 | 0.1% |
| 5-0 | 0.3% | 5-1 | 0.4% | 5-2 | 0.3% |
| 5-3 | 0.2% | 5-4 | 0.1% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.9% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 11.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 94.5% | under_0.5 | 5.5% | over_1.5 | 80.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 19.3% | over_2.5 | 57.8% | under_2.5 | 42.2% |
| over_3.5 | 35.4% | under_3.5 | 64.6% | over_4.5 | 18.6% |
| under_4.5 | 81.5% | over_5.5 | 8.4% | under_5.5 | 91.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.8% | even | 51.2% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 77.3% | under_0.5 | 22.7% | over_1.5 | 43.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 56.3% | over_2.5 | 18.7% | under_2.5 | 81.3% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 78.1% | under_0.5 | 21.9% | over_1.5 | 44.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 55.1% | over_2.5 | 19.6% | under_2.5 | 80.4% |
most
| home | 36.5% | draw | 25.4% | away | 38.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 6.7% | away_+2.5 | 93.3% | home_-1.5 | 17.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 82.4% | home_-0.5 | 36.5% | away_+0.5 | 63.5% |
| home_+0.5 | 61.9% | away_-0.5 | 38.1% | home_+1.5 | 81.3% |
| away_-1.5 | 18.8% | home_+2.5 | 92.7% | away_-2.5 | 7.3% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 5.5% | exact_1 | 13.8% | exact_2 | 22.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 22.4% | exact_4 | 16.8% | exact_5 | 10.1% |
| exact_6 | 5.1% | exact_7plus | 3.4% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 28.3% | draw | 41.3% | away | 30.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 70.8% | under_0.5 | 29.2% | over_1.5 | 34.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 65.1% | over_2.5 | 12.7% | under_2.5 | 87.3% |
btts
| yes | 21.1% | no | 78.9% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 29.2% | exact_1 | 35.9% | exact_2 | 22.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 9.1% | exact_4plus | 3.7% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 34.5% | draw | 33.7% | away | 31.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 82.3% | under_0.5 | 17.7% | over_1.5 | 51.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 48.4% | over_2.5 | 25.1% | under_2.5 | 74.9% |
btts
| yes | 33.5% | no | 66.5% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 21.0% | H/D | 5.0% | H/A | 2.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 14.3% | D/D | 13.9% | D/A | 13.1% |
| A/H | 2.9% | A/D | 5.6% | A/A | 21.8% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 75.2% | under_7.5 | 24.8% | over_8.5 | 63.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 36.1% | over_9.5 | 51.9% | under_9.5 | 48.1% |
| over_10.5 | 40.1% | under_10.5 | 59.9% | over_11.5 | 29.5% |
| under_11.5 | 70.5% | over_12.5 | 20.7% | under_12.5 | 79.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 75.2% | under_3.5 | 24.8% | over_4.5 | 60.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 39.7% | over_5.5 | 45.0% | under_5.5 | 55.0% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 61.9% | under_3.5 | 38.1% | over_4.5 | 44.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 55.3% | over_5.5 | 29.7% | under_5.5 | 70.3% |
most
| home | 55.0% | draw | 10.5% | away | 34.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 24.6% | away_+3.5 | 75.4% | home_-1.5 | 44.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 55.9% | home_-0.5 | 55.0% | away_+0.5 | 45.0% |
| home_+0.5 | 65.5% | away_-0.5 | 34.5% | home_+1.5 | 75.0% |
| away_-1.5 | 25.0% | home_+3.5 | 88.8% | away_-3.5 | 11.2% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 65.2% | under_22.5 | 34.8% | over_24.5 | 52.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 47.2% | over_26.5 | 40.5% | under_26.5 | 59.5% |
| over_28.5 | 29.3% | under_28.5 | 70.7% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 73.4% | under_10.5 | 26.6% | over_12.5 | 57.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 42.9% | over_14.5 | 40.5% | under_14.5 | 59.5% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 57.1% | under_10.5 | 42.9% | over_12.5 | 38.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 61.1% | over_14.5 | 23.8% | under_14.5 | 76.2% |
most
| home | 59.6% | draw | 6.0% | away | 34.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 34.7% | away_+4.5 | 65.3% | home_-2.5 | 47.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 53.0% | home_-0.5 | 59.6% | away_+0.5 | 40.4% |
| home_+0.5 | 65.6% | away_-0.5 | 34.4% | home_+2.5 | 76.4% |
| away_-2.5 | 23.6% | home_+4.5 | 85.0% | away_-4.5 | 15.0% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 77.8% | under_6.5 | 22.3% | over_7.5 | 66.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 33.6% | over_8.5 | 53.9% | under_8.5 | 46.1% |
| over_9.5 | 41.7% | under_9.5 | 58.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 70.2% | under_3.5 | 29.8% | over_4.5 | 53.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 46.8% | over_5.5 | 36.9% | under_5.5 | 63.1% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 57.7% | under_3.5 | 42.3% | over_4.5 | 39.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 60.7% | over_5.5 | 24.3% | under_5.5 | 75.7% |
most
| home | 53.3% | draw | 12.4% | away | 34.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 29.0% | away_+2.5 | 71.0% | home_-0.5 | 53.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 46.7% | home_+0.5 | 65.7% | away_-0.5 | 34.3% |
| home_+2.5 | 85.2% | away_-2.5 | 14.8% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 76.6% | under_2.5 | 23.4% | over_3.5 | 57.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 42.1% | over_4.5 | 39.1% | under_4.5 | 60.9% |
| over_5.5 | 23.6% | under_5.5 | 76.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 61.7% | under_1.5 | 38.3% | over_2.5 | 35.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 64.4% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 57.8% | under_1.5 | 42.2% | over_2.5 | 31.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 68.3% |
most
| home | 42.8% | draw | 19.9% | away | 37.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 24.9% | away_+1.5 | 75.1% | home_-0.5 | 42.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 57.2% | home_+0.5 | 62.7% | away_-0.5 | 37.3% |
| home_+1.5 | 79.4% | away_-1.5 | 20.6% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 64.5% | under_20.5 | 35.5% | over_22.5 | 50.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 50.0% | over_24.5 | 36.1% | under_24.5 | 63.9% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 75.3% | under_9.5 | 24.7% | over_11.5 | 56.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 43.5% | over_13.5 | 37.5% | under_13.5 | 62.5% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 56.2% | under_9.5 | 43.8% | over_11.5 | 35.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 64.9% | over_13.5 | 18.8% | under_13.5 | 81.2% |
most
| home | 61.4% | draw | 6.8% | away | 31.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 39.7% | away_+3.5 | 60.3% | home_-0.5 | 61.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 38.6% | home_+2.5 | 80.1% | away_-2.5 | 19.9% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 19.1% | no | 80.9% |
|---|
home
| yes | 15.0% | no | 85.0% |
|---|
away
| yes | 4.9% | no | 95.1% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55416 matches).
More: Ath Madrid predictions · Real Madrid predictions · La Liga
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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