La Liga
Getafe vs 
Malaga Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 70.2%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 85.1% for over 2.5 to 35.7% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 52.6%. Between the two sides, Malaga are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 43.1%, with a level count at 18.2%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 85.1% | 14.9% |
| 3.5 cards | 70.2% | 29.8% |
| 4.5 cards | 52.6% | 47.4% |
| 5.5 cards | 35.7% | 64.3% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
67.1%
41.6%
69.8%
44.7%
Card handicap
| Getafe line | Getafe | Malaga |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 22.9% | 77.1% |
| -0.5 | 38.8% | 61.2% |
| +0.5 | 56.9% | 43.1% |
| +1.5 | 73.6% | 26.4% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 83.8% | 16.2% |
| 22.5 fouls | 73.5% | 26.5% |
| 24.5 fouls | 61.1% | 39.0% |
This season (2026/27)
3.4Getafe cards per game12.6Getafe fouls per game2.2Malaga cards per game11.4Malaga fouls per gameThe discipline market is less analysed than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Getafe vs Malaga. Slightly more cards are projected for Malaga for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
70.2%Over 3.5 cards17.5%Any red card67.1%Getafe over 1.5 cards69.8%Malaga over 1.5 cards73.5%Over 22.5 foulsFor the team lines, Getafe over 1.5 cards sits at 67.1% and Malaga at 69.8%. A red card for either side is rated at 17.5% (Getafe 12.2%, Malaga 6.1%). This season Getafe have averaged 3.4 cards a game and Malaga 2.2.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Getafe vs Malaga?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 70.2% for Getafe vs Malaga.
Will there be a red card in Getafe vs Malaga?
The model rates a red card for either side at 17.5%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Getafe vs Malaga?
The model rates Malaga to pick up more cards at 43.1%, with a level count at 18.2%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 8,397 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Cards actually happened 73.2% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 17 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More La Liga, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
