Getafe vs Malaga prediction & probabilities (2026-09-20)

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Getafe vs Malaga: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 17 Sep 2026

La Liga
Getafe

LWLDD

Sun, 20 Sep 202613:00UK27°C · Clear
Malaga

LDLDD

Model’s top convictions

78%

Getafe or draw

65%

Under 2.5 goals

63%

Over 1.5 goals

Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Model pick

Getafe49.1%

Win probability · fair 2.04

Top signals

Getafe or drawVery likely78.2%Fair 1.28
Under 2.5 goalsLikely64.7%Fair 1.55
Over 1.5 goalsLikely62.9%Fair 1.59

Model read

A measured edge to Getafe: 49% is the model's line for this La Liga meeting on 20 September 2026. Three angles decide this preview: 1) This shapes as a low scoring affair: Over 2.5 is only 35% with both teams to score at 41%. 2) Head to head, the last 5 meetings gave 3 wins for Getafe, 0 draws and 2 for Malaga, averaging 2.2 goals a game. 3) Form guide over the last six: Getafe W2 D2 L2, Malaga W0 D3 L3. For shots markets, Enes Ünal is the obvious watch at 0.9 on target per 90 in recent data. Malaga are newly promoted, a profile the model deliberately prices with caution. Verdict: no bet. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 9.5 corners45.2%@ 2.21
Over 2.5 goals35.3%@ 2.83
Over 10.5 corners35.0%@ 2.86
Medium risk

Not both teams to score59.1%@ 1.69
Over 8.5 corners56.3%@ 1.78
Draw or Malaga50.9%@ 1.96
Random finds

1-0 correct score15.2%@ 6.57
1-1 correct score13.4%@ 7.49
0-0 correct score12.8%@ 7.81

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Getafe

49.1%

Draw

29.0%

Malaga

21.9%

Model

no bookmaker price published for this match yet

Goals

Over 1.5Strongest read · Likely62.9%Fair 1.59
Over 2.5Unlikely35.3%Fair 2.83
BTTS · YesUnlikely40.9%Fair 2.44

Corners

Over 8.5 cornersClose call56.3%Fair 1.78
Over 9.5 cornersClose call45.2%Fair 2.21
Over 10.5 cornersUnlikely35.0%Fair 2.86
Over 11.5 cornersLong shot26.1%Fair 3.83
Most cornersGetafe53.7%Malaga35.1%

Shots

Over 22.5 shotsClose call56.4%Fair 1.77
Over 24.5 shotsUnlikely43.5%Fair 2.30
Over 26.5 shotsUnlikely31.7%Fair 3.16
Over 28.5 shotsLong shot21.7%Fair 4.62

Recent shot volume

Getafe10.0 taken11.8 faced
Malaga10.0 taken13.2 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

First half / second half shots

Getafe (5 games)

5.2 / 5.6

Malaga (5 games)

4.8 / 6.2

Shots taken before and after half-time, per game, over the games in brackets. The bar is the share taken in the first half. This is Understat shot data with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, counted separately from the match shot totals above, so the two can differ. A match where the split could not be verified is left out rather than guessed.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.562.9%2.535.3%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.562.9%

Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Form & head-to-head

GetafeLWLDD
MalagaLDLDD

Last 5 meetings: Getafe 3 · 0 draws · Malaga 2 · 2.2 goals/game.

2018-05-19Malaga 0-1 Getafe
2018-01-12Getafe 1-0 Malaga
2016-02-05Malaga 3-0 Getafe
2015-09-18Getafe 1-0 Malaga
2015-02-28Malaga 3-2 Getafe

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

GetafeMalaga
League position#15 of 20#18 of 20
Record W-D-L1-2-20-3-2
Current streakD2D2
Points per game1.000.60
Record, home vs away1-2-00-1-2
PPG, home vs away1.670.33
Goals scored per game0.600.40
Goals conceded per game1.201.60
Scored, home vs away1.000.33
Conceded, home vs away0.672.33
1st half goals per game0.200.20
2nd half goals per game0.400.20
Corners won per game4.05.0
Cards per game3.42.2
Fouls per game12.611.4
Red cards this season20
Shots per game10.810.8
Shots faced per game12.013.6
Shots on target per game2.01.8
1st half shots per game5.24.8
2nd half shots per game5.66.2
xG for per game0.960.92
xG against per game1.501.71
Over 2.5 rate

20.0%20.0%

BTTS rate

40.0%40.0%

Clean sheets

20.0%20.0%

Rates this season:GetafeMalaga

League averages this season: 3.07 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 56% · BTTS in 56%. Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Enes ÜnalGetafe · key player
To score8.8%11.36
1+ on target18.4%5.43
2+ shots22.2%4.50
Shots/90 3.96SoT/90 0.91Goals/90 0.41
ChupeMalaga · key player
To score18.1%5.52
1+ on target45.1%2.22
2+ shots76.9%1.30
Shots/90 2.8SoT/90 0.6Goals/90 0.2
Martín SatrianoGetafe · in form
To score20.8%4.81
1+ on target44.5%2.25
2+ shots50.4%1.98
Shots/90 2.1SoT/90 0.73Goals/90 0.29
Juan CruzMalaga · in form
To score8.4%11.90
1+ on target29.5%3.39
2+ shots24.2%4.13
Shots/90 1.29SoT/90 0.48Goals/90 0.12
Borja MayoralGetafe · in form
To score19.3%5.18
1+ on target31.5%3.17
2+ shots20.3%4.93
Shots/90 1.47SoT/90 0.67Goals/90 0.38
Pablo MartínezMalaga · in form
To score3.0%33.33
1+ on target15.5%6.45
2+ shots26.3%3.80
Shots/90 1.3SoT/90 0.22Goals/90 0.04

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Getafe win2.10
Draw3.34
Malaga win4.47
Both teams to score2.45

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.15
Over 1.5 goals1.59
Over 2.5 goals2.84
Over 3.5 goals6.13
Getafe most2.10
Malaga most4.47

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.42
Over 8.5 corners1.71
Over 9.5 corners2.18
Over 10.5 corners2.91
Getafe most1.86
Malaga most2.84

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.17
Over 3.5 cards1.42
Over 4.5 cards1.90
Over 5.5 cards2.80
Getafe most2.58
Malaga most2.32

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.55
Over 7.5 SoT1.96
Over 8.5 SoT2.63
Over 9.5 SoT3.75
Getafe most1.78
Malaga most3.28

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.77
Over 24.5 shots2.30
Over 26.5 shots3.16
Over 28.5 shots4.62
Getafe most1.61
Malaga most3.14

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.19
Over 22.5 fouls1.36
Over 24.5 fouls1.64
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 56.4% Over 24.5 43.5% Over 26.5 31.7% Over 28.5 21.7%
Most: Getafe 62.0% Most: Malaga 31.9%
Getafe Over 13.2 43.8% Malaga Over 13.2 23.4%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 64.7% Over 7.5 51.1% Over 8.5 38.0% Over 9.5 26.6%
Most: Getafe 56.3% Most: Malaga 30.5%
Getafe Over 4.2 44.2% Malaga Over 4.2 26.1%

Cards

Over 2.5 85.1% Over 3.5 70.2% Over 4.5 52.6%
Most: Getafe 38.8% Most: Malaga 43.1%
Getafe Over 1.8 67.1% Malaga Over 1.8 69.8%

Getafe: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Enes Ünal 3.96 0.91 0.41 18.4% 22.2% 8.8%
Martín Satriano 2.1 0.73 0.29 44.5% 50.4% 20.8%
Borja Mayoral 1.47 0.67 0.38 31.5% 20.3% 19.3%
Ramón Terrats 1.64 0.48 0.19 23.1% 22.6% 9.9%
Mario Martín 1.25 0.42 0.04 25.2% 21.5% 2.7%

Malaga: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Chupe 2.8 0.6 0.2 45.1% 76.9% 18.1%
Juan Cruz 1.29 0.48 0.12 29.5% 24.2% 8.4%
Pablo Martínez 1.3 0.22 0.04 15.5% 26.3% 3.0%
Ángel Recio 0.6 0.2 0 18.1% 12.2% 0.0%
Jens Cajuste 0.54 0.04 0.04 2.9% 6.2% 2.9%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Getafe clean sheet 44.7%
Malaga clean sheet 27.1%
Getafe win to nil 31.9%
Malaga win to nil 14.3%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 47.7% draw 29.9% away 22.4%
double_chance
1X 77.6% 12 70.1% X2 52.3%
dnb
home 68.1% away 31.9%
btts
yes 40.9% no 59.1%
clean_sheet
home 44.8% away 27.1%
win_to_nil
home 32.0% away 14.3%
winning_margin
home_by_1 25.1% home_by_2 14.5% home_by_3plus 8.2%
away_by_1 15.2% away_by_2 5.5% away_by_3plus 1.7%
correct_score
0-0 12.8% 0-1 9.1% 0-2 3.9%
0-3 1.1% 0-4 0.2% 0-5 0.0%
1-0 15.2% 1-1 13.4% 1-2 5.1%
1-3 1.4% 1-4 0.3% 1-5 0.1%
2-0 10.3% 2-1 8.3% 2-2 3.3%
2-3 0.9% 2-4 0.2% 2-5 0.0%
3-0 4.5% 3-1 3.6% 3-2 1.5%
3-3 0.4% 3-4 0.1% 3-5 0.0%
4-0 1.5% 4-1 1.2% 4-2 0.5%
4-3 0.1% 4-4 0.0% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.4% 5-1 0.3% 5-2 0.1%
5-3 0.0% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.3%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 0.0% p 15.2%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 87.2% under_0.5 12.8% over_1.5 62.9%
under_1.5 37.1% over_2.5 35.3% under_2.5 64.7%
over_3.5 16.3% under_3.5 83.7% over_4.5 6.3%
under_4.5 93.7% over_5.5 2.1% under_5.5 97.9%
odd_even
odd 48.0% even 52.0%
team_home
over_0.5 72.9% under_0.5 27.1% over_1.5 37.5%
under_1.5 62.5% over_2.5 14.4% under_2.5 85.6%
team_away
over_0.5 55.2% under_0.5 44.8% over_1.5 19.3%
under_1.5 80.7% over_2.5 4.8% under_2.5 95.2%
most
home 47.7% draw 29.9% away 22.4%
handicap
home_-2.5 8.2% away_+2.5 91.8% home_-1.5 22.6%
away_+1.5 77.4% home_-0.5 47.7% away_+0.5 52.3%
home_+0.5 77.6% away_-0.5 22.4% home_+1.5 92.8%
away_-1.5 7.2% home_+2.5 98.3% away_-2.5 1.7%
total_exact
exact_0 12.8% exact_1 24.3% exact_2 27.6%
exact_3 19.0% exact_4 10.0% exact_5 4.2%
exact_6 1.5% exact_7plus 0.6%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 38.4% draw 48.8% away 12.9%
total
over_0.5 58.0% under_0.5 42.0% over_1.5 21.6%
under_1.5 78.5% over_2.5 5.8% under_2.5 94.3%
btts
yes 10.2% no 89.8%
total_exact
exact_0 42.0% exact_1 36.4% exact_2 15.8%
exact_3 4.6% exact_4plus 1.2%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 29.9% draw 48.8% away 21.3%
total
over_0.5 59.8% under_0.5 40.2% over_1.5 23.2%
under_1.5 76.8% over_2.5 6.5% under_2.5 93.5%
btts
yes 13.1% no 86.9%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 32.1% H/D 5.2% H/A 1.1%
D/H 14.6% D/D 23.8% D/A 10.4%
A/H 0.8% A/D 2.7% A/A 9.4%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 70.4% under_7.5 29.6% over_8.5 58.3%
under_8.5 41.7% over_9.5 45.9% under_9.5 54.1%
over_10.5 34.3% under_10.5 65.7% over_11.5 24.4%
under_11.5 75.6% over_12.5 16.5% under_12.5 83.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 71.7% under_3.5 28.3% over_4.5 55.8%
under_4.5 44.2% over_5.5 40.3% under_5.5 59.7%
team_away
over_3.5 59.0% under_3.5 41.0% over_4.5 41.6%
under_4.5 58.4% over_5.5 26.9% under_5.5 73.2%
most
home 53.8% draw 11.0% away 35.2%
handicap
home_-3.5 22.8% away_+3.5 77.2% home_-1.5 42.6%
away_+1.5 57.4% home_-0.5 53.8% away_+0.5 46.2%
home_+0.5 64.8% away_-0.5 35.2% home_+1.5 74.7%
away_-1.5 25.3% home_+3.5 89.0% away_-3.5 11.0%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 56.4% under_22.5 43.6% over_24.5 43.5%
under_24.5 56.5% over_26.5 31.7% under_26.5 68.3%
over_28.5 21.7% under_28.5 78.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 69.4% under_10.5 30.6% over_12.5 52.3%
under_12.5 47.7% over_14.5 35.9% under_14.5 64.1%
team_away
over_10.5 48.6% under_10.5 51.4% over_12.5 30.7%
under_12.5 69.3% over_14.5 17.4% under_14.5 82.6%
most
home 62.0% draw 6.1% away 31.9%
handicap
home_-4.5 36.2% away_+4.5 63.8% home_-2.5 49.0%
away_+2.5 51.0% home_-0.5 62.0% away_+0.5 38.0%
home_+0.5 68.1% away_-0.5 31.9% home_+2.5 78.9%
away_-2.5 21.2% home_+4.5 87.1% away_-4.5 12.9%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 64.7% under_6.5 35.3% over_7.5 51.1%
under_7.5 48.9% over_8.5 38.0% under_8.5 62.0%
over_9.5 26.6% under_9.5 73.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 62.3% under_3.5 37.7% over_4.5 44.2%
under_4.5 55.8% over_5.5 28.5% under_5.5 71.5%
team_away
over_3.5 43.7% under_3.5 56.3% over_4.5 26.1%
under_4.5 73.9% over_5.5 14.0% under_5.5 86.0%
most
home 56.3% draw 13.2% away 30.5%
handicap
home_-2.5 29.7% away_+2.5 70.3% home_-0.5 56.3%
away_+0.5 43.7% home_+0.5 69.5% away_-0.5 30.5%
home_+2.5 88.6% away_-2.5 11.4%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 85.1% under_2.5 14.9% over_3.5 70.2%
under_3.5 29.8% over_4.5 52.6% under_4.5 47.4%
over_5.5 35.7% under_5.5 64.3%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 67.1% under_1.5 32.9% over_2.5 41.6%
under_2.5 58.4%
team_away
over_1.5 69.8% under_1.5 30.2% over_2.5 44.7%
under_2.5 55.3%
most
home 38.8% draw 18.2% away 43.1%
handicap
home_-1.5 22.9% away_+1.5 77.1% home_-0.5 38.8%
away_+0.5 61.2% home_+0.5 56.9% away_-0.5 43.1%
home_+1.5 73.6% away_-1.5 26.4%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 83.8% under_20.5 16.2% over_22.5 73.5%
under_22.5 26.5% over_24.5 61.1% under_24.5 39.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 80.5% under_9.5 19.5% over_11.5 63.7%
under_11.5 36.3% over_13.5 45.0% under_13.5 55.0%
team_away
over_9.5 80.4% under_9.5 19.6% over_11.5 63.4%
under_11.5 36.6% over_13.5 44.7% under_13.5 55.3%
most
home 46.8% draw 6.7% away 46.5%
handicap
home_-3.5 28.0% away_+3.5 72.0% home_-0.5 46.8%
away_+0.5 53.2% home_+2.5 66.5% away_-2.5 33.5%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 17.5% no 82.5%
home
yes 12.2% no 87.8%
away
yes 6.1% no 93.9%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0096 (55405 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Getafe predictions · Malaga predictions · La Liga

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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