Arsenal 2-0 Everton cards: our prediction vs the result
Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.
Result
Arsenal2-0Everton
We called Over 3.5 at 50.7% and it landed (4 in the match). We called No at 89.2% and it landed (0 in the match).
Model read
Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.
Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.
Conviction: Lean
Over 3.5 cards50.7%
Match referee
The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.
Recorded match referee.
| Per match | All matches | 2026/27 |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 269 | 6 |
| Goals | 2.74 | 3.50 |
| Yellow cards | 3.19 | 3.17 |
| Red cards | 0.13 | 0.17 |
| Corners | 10.3 | 11.0 |
| Fouls | 23.6 | 22.2 |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 67% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 67% |
| Home wins | 47% | 50% |
| Date | Match | Score | Goals | BTTS | Yellow | Red | Corners | Fouls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Oct 2026 | Arsenal vs Everton | 2-0 | 2 | No | 4 | 0 | 15 | 24 |
| 19 Sep 2026 | Newcastle vs Hull | 2-1 | 3 | Yes | 5 | 0 | 11 | 14 |
| 13 Sep 2026 | Coventry vs Brighton | 0-5 | 5 | No | 0 | 1 | 8 | 24 |
| 1 Sep 2026 | Sheffield United vs BoltonChampionship | 3-2 | 5 | Yes | 2 | 0 | 10 | 21 |
| 30 Aug 2026 | Leeds vs Brentford | 1-1 | 2 | Yes | 4 | 0 | 11 | 18 |
| 22 Aug 2026 | Lincoln vs PortsmouthChampionship | 1-3 | 4 | Yes | 4 | 0 | 11 | 32 |
| 18 Jan 2026 | Aston Villa vs Everton | 0-1 | 1 | No | 3 | 0 | 10 | 28 |
| 6 Jan 2026 | West Ham vs Nottingham Forest | 1-2 | 3 | Yes | 3 | 0 | 11 | 24 |
| 1 Jan 2026 | Crystal Palace vs Fulham | 1-1 | 2 | Yes | 5 | 0 | 9 | 17 |
| 28 Dec 2025 | Sunderland vs Leeds | 1-1 | 2 | Yes | 1 | 0 | 12 | 16 |
Cards (bookings)
Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.
Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Arsenal vs Everton. The model leans toward Everton for the most cards.
Total cards
Both teams combined.
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 71.6% | 28.4% |
| 3.5 cards | 50.7% | 49.3% |
| 4.5 cards | 31.4% | 68.6% |
| 5.5 cards | 17.1% | 82.9% |
Who picks up more cards
ArsenalEvertonTeam cards lines
Arsenal
Everton
Card handicap
The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Arsenal's; Everton gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.
| Arsenal line | Arsenal | Everton |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 10.5% | 89.5% |
| -0.5 | 24.0% | 76.0% |
| +0.5 | 44.0% | 56.0% |
| +1.5 | 65.1% | 34.9% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 60.1% | 39.9% |
| 22.5 fouls | 43.8% | 56.2% |
| 24.5 fouls | 29.0% | 71.0% |
Recent referees
The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.
| Team | Referee | Games | Cards/g | Team cards/g |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everton | P Tierney | 2 | 4.0 | 1.5 |
Swipe to see all referee stats →
Card trends
2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Arsenal at home and Everton away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.
Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 11,337 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.
Our last 10 Cards calls
Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 50.7%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 71.6% for over 2.5 to 17.1% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 50.7%. On the card count, Everton are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 56.0%, with a level count at 20.0%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.
In-depth analysis
Split by side, Arsenal over 1.5 cards sits at 42.3% and Everton at 66.1%. A red card for either side is rated at 10.8% (Arsenal 2.3%, Everton 8.7%). Everton’s most frequent referee this season, P Tierney, has averaged 4.0 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff.
These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. We score every call against the result after the match.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
This season
2026/27 · Recorded results.
Bar scales · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.
FAQ
How many cards in Arsenal vs Everton?
Will there be a red card in Arsenal vs Everton?
Which team will pick up more cards in Arsenal vs Everton?
How is this probability calculated?
Is this a betting tip?
More Premier League, Cards
Related
Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
