AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

Premier League
ArsenalArsenalWWLWW
Full time2-0Sat, 24 Oct 202624/1015:00UK11°C · Rain
EvertonEvertonDDWDL

Arsenal 2-0 Everton shots: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 24.5 shotsBoth teams combined51.9%
Under 24.5 shotsBoth teams combined48.1%

Result

Arsenal2-0Everton
Shots in this match: Arsenal vs Everton
This match Arsenal Everton Total
Shots 20 8 28
Shots on target 4 3 7
1st-half shots 12 3 15
2nd-half shots 8 5 13
1st-half on target 2 2 4
2nd-half on target 2 1 3
Model expected shots 14.2 10.9 25.1
Model expected on target 4.9 3.5 8.5
Over 24.5Over 7.5

We called Over 24.5 at 51.9% and it landed (28 in the match). We called Over 7.5 at 58.2% and it missed (7 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 24.5 shots51.9%

Shots prediction

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Total shots follow which side is chasing the game, below are the model total-shot probabilities. It edges Arsenal.

What the model expects

The average number of shots and shots on target each team takes in the model's own distribution for this match, the same distribution the lines below come from. It is an average, not a betting line, and it is a model estimate, not a recorded result.

Treat as a range

Model expected shots and shots on target, Arsenal vs Everton
Model expects Shots On target
Arsenal 14.2 4.9
Everton 10.9 3.5
Both teams 25.1 8.5

Total shots

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
22.5 shots 63.5% 36.5%
24.5 shots 51.9% 48.1%
26.5 shots 40.4% 59.6%
28.5 shots 29.8% 70.2%

Who takes more shots

Arsenal
66.3%
Level
5.3%
Everton
28.5%

Team shots lines

Arsenal

Over 10.5
75.3%
Over 12.5
60.9%
Over 14.5
45.8%

Everton

Over 10.5
49.9%
Over 12.5
33.2%
Over 14.5
20.3%

Shots on target

Model probabilities for shots on target, both teams combined in the ladder and per team below. A shot on target is one the goalkeeper has to deal with, or a goal.

Not trusted in this league

Line Over Under
6.5 shots on target 70.1% 29.9%
7.5 shots on target 58.2% 41.8%
8.5 shots on target 46.1% 53.9%
9.5 shots on target 34.9% 65.1%

Who has more on target

Arsenal
59.8%
Level
11.6%
Everton
28.6%

Team shots on target lines

Arsenal

Over 3.5
67.8%
Over 4.5
51.8%
Over 5.5
36.9%

Everton

Over 3.5
45.9%
Over 4.5
29.1%
Over 5.5
16.9%

Shot handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Arsenal's; Everton gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Arsenal line Arsenal Everton
-4.5 43.1% 57.0%
-2.5 54.9% 45.1%
-0.5 66.3% 33.7%
+0.5 71.5% 28.5%

Player shots

Model probabilities for each listed player: two or more shots, and at least one shot on target. They come from the player's own shots per 90 minutes this season, scaled to the minutes he has averaged, and they assume he plays. Shots /90 is his recorded rate. Players reported out or suspended are left out. Not bookmaker odds.

Arsenal player shots
Arsenal 2+ shots 1+ on target Shots /90
Noni Madueke 46.9% 42.0% 2.67
Eberechi Eze 61.4% 44.7% 3.01
Kai Havertz 51.8% 47.5% 2.29
Viktor Gyokeres 40.8% 42.2% 2.17
Mikel Merino 31.1% 31.8% 2.18
Everton player shots
Everton 2+ shots 1+ on target Shots /90
Carlos Alcaraz 37.0% 36.1% 3.08
Thierno Barry 48.1% 46.1% 2.44
Tyrique George 17.9% 23.5% 2.40
Iliman Ndiaye 37.1% 44.2% 1.42
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall 34.7% 34.3% 1.52

Shots stats

Recorded results from league matches, not predictions. A missing value is shown as a dot, never as zero.

This season: average per game in this season's league matches. A value appears only after five matches with shot data; Matches shows how many there were. More shots is the share of matches in which the team took more shots than its opponent.

At home and away: Arsenal in their home matches and Everton in their away matches this season, the venue each side plays at in this match. A split appears after three matches at that venue.

By half: shots before and after the break, per game. In the Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga, Serie A and Ligue 1 the half split comes from Understat and is used only when the shots before the break match the half-time score; elsewhere it comes from the data provider's half-by-half statistics and is used only when both halves add up to the full-time count. Shots on target per half come from the data provider. The halves can therefore have fewer matches, shown in brackets, than the full-match averages.

By half, at home and away: the same half split, using only Arsenal's home matches and Everton's away matches.

Last six league matches: the most recent six league matches with shot data, which can include last season. Shown only with at least five matches.

Last six at home and away: Arsenal's last six home league matches and Everton's last six away league matches, across seasons when needed.

ArsenalArsenal

Recorded 2026/27

EvertonEverton
This season
Statistic
Arsenal
Everton
Shots per game
13.0
16.0

Shots faced per game
10.6
13.8

Shots on target per game
4.8
4.6

On target faced per game
2.8
3.6

Matches with more shots
40.0%
60.0%

Matches
5
5
Arsenal at home, Everton away

Not enough home and away matches with shot data this season yet.

By half, this season
Statistic
Arsenal
Everton
1st-half shots
5.8
6.8

2nd-half shots
7.2
9.0

1st-half shots faced
5.0
6.2

2nd-half shots faced
5.7
6.8

Matches
6
6
By half, at home and away
Statistic
Arsenal
Everton
1st-half shots
7.7
7.0

2nd-half shots
8.7
6.3

1st-half shots faced
4.7
6.3

2nd-half shots faced
4.7
7.0

Matches
3
3
Last six league matches
Statistic
Arsenal
Everton
Shots per game
11.2
14.2

Shots faced per game
12.3
14.2

Shots on target per game
4.2
5.0

On target faced per game
3.3
4.3

1st-half shots
4.8
6.5

2nd-half shots
6.3
7.7

1st-half shots faced
5.2
5.8

2nd-half shots faced
7.2
8.3

Matches
6
6
Last six at home and away
Statistic
Arsenal
Everton
Shots per game
15.2
12.0

Shots faced per game
9.3
15.3

Shots on target per game
6.2
4.8

On target faced per game
2.5
4.8

Matches
6
6

League average per match: 28.0 shots, 8.7 on target, 12.4 in the 1st half, 15.3 in the 2nd half.

Shots accuracy

How our Shots calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

58.7%Best Shots call, hit rate
0.0366Calibration error
50,938Matches graded

In 13,109 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Shots actually happened 57.0% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Shots calls

Our most recent Shots calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 55.9%✓ 52.0%✗ 57.4%✓ 56.9%✗ 58.7%✓ 55.2%✗ 56.2%✓ 65.6%✓ 63.0%✗ 57.5%
5 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Under 24.5 55.9%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Over 24.5 52.0%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Under 24.5 57.4%Miss
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 24.5 56.9%Hit
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 24.5 58.7%Miss
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Over 24.5 shots at 51.9%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Across the lines, the model goes from 63.5% for over 22.5 to 29.8% for over 28.5, with over 24.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 51.9%. On the shot count, Arsenal are the model’s pick to have more shots at 66.3%, with a level count at 5.3%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, Arsenal over 12.5 shots sits at 60.9% and Everton at 33.2%. This season Arsenal have averaged 13.0 shots a game and Everton 16.0. Arsenal take 5.8 shots before half-time and 7.2 after, Everton 6.8 and 9.0.

Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. We score every call against the result after the match.

51.9%Over 24.5 shots
66.3%Most shots: Arsenal
60.9%Arsenal over 12.5 shots
33.2%Everton over 12.5 shots
58.2%Over 7.5 on target

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 51.9% on Shots. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Volume ReaderArsenal are the pick to have more shots at 66.3%, shot volume follows the side that keeps the ball in the final third.
The Clock WatcherArsenal average 5.8 shots in the first half and 7.2 in the second, so their volume builds as the game opens up.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 24.5 shots: over sits at 51.9%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.

FAQ

How many shots in Arsenal vs Everton?
Before kickoff, the model expected about 14.2 shots for Arsenal and 10.9 for Everton, 25.1 in total, and rated over 24.5 total shots at 51.9%.
Which team will have more shots in Arsenal vs Everton?
Before kickoff, the model rated Arsenal to take more shots at 66.3%.
How many shots do Everton take away from home?
Everton have taken 12.0 shots per game and faced 15.3 across 6 recorded away league matches, the most recent ones, including last season when needed.
Do Arsenal shoot more in the first or second half?
Arsenal average 5.8 shots before half-time and 7.2 after, this season.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Premier LeagueArsenal fixtures and statsEverton fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.