AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 27 Oct 2026

Primeira Liga
Casa PiaCasa PiaDLWLW
Fri, 30 Oct 202630/1020:15UK
Sp LisbonSp LisbonWDDWL

Casa Pia vs Sporting CP corners prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Under 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined55.6%
Over 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined44.4%

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 9.5 corners44.4%

Corners

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

The corners market rewards teams that camp in the final third, below are the model total-corner probabilities. More corners are projected for Sp Lisbon.

Total corners

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
7.5 corners 67.3% 32.7%
8.5 corners 55.8% 44.2%
9.5 corners 44.4% 55.6%
10.5 corners 33.9% 66.1%
11.5 corners 24.9% 75.1%
12.5 corners 17.5% 82.5%

Who wins the corner count

Casa Pia
43.3%
Level
10.5%
Sp Lisbon
46.2%

Team corners lines

Casa Pia

Over 3.5
61.7%
Over 4.5
46.0%
Over 5.5
32.2%

Sp Lisbon

Over 3.5
63.7%
Over 4.5
48.2%
Over 5.5
34.3%

Corner handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Casa Pia's; Sp Lisbon gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Casa Pia line Casa Pia Sp Lisbon
-1.5 33.3% 66.7%
-0.5 43.3% 56.7%
+0.5 53.8% 46.2%
+1.5 63.9% 36.1%
Casa PiaCasa Pia

Corner trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Casa Pia at home and Sp Lisbon away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

Sp LisbonSp Lisbon
Statistic
Casa Pia
Sp Lisbon
Corners won per game at this venue
3.5
3.3

Corners conceded per game at this venue
5.3
4.0

First-half corners won per game
1.7
3.1

Second-half corners won per game
2.4
1.5

Matches with more corners than the opponent
33.3%
50.0%

Matches with corner data
9
8

Bar scales · Corners per game: 0–10 · Recorded rate (%): 0–100. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Corners accuracy

How our Corners calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

54.0%Best Corners call, hit rate
0.0095Calibration error
50,938Matches graded

In 21,932 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Corners actually happened 47.7% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Corners calls

Our most recent Corners calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 55.9%✓ 52.1%✓ 53.5%✓ 50.6%✓ 53.9%✗ 51.1%✗ 50.7%✗ 58.3%✓ 55.7%✗ 59.5%
5 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Under 9.5 55.9%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Over 9.5 52.1%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Under 9.5 53.5%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Under 9.5 50.6%Hit
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Under 9.5 53.9%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The model makes Over 9.5 corners at 44.4%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Line by line, the read runs from 67.3% for over 7.5 to 17.5% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 44.4%. On the corner count, Sp Lisbon are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 46.2%, with a level count at 10.5%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, Casa Pia over 4.5 corners sits at 46.0% and Sp Lisbon at 48.2%. This season Casa Pia have averaged 4.1 corners won a game and Sp Lisbon 4.6.

We publish the model, not a sure thing. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.

44.4%Over 9.5 corners
46.2%Most corners: Sp Lisbon
46.0%Casa Pia over 4.5 corners
48.2%Sp Lisbon over 4.5 corners
50.0%Odd corner total

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 44.4% on Corners. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Territory ReaderSp Lisbon are the pick to win the corner count at 46.2%, the count usually goes the way of the side doing the attacking.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 9.5 corners: over sits at 44.4%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
Casa PiaCasa Pia

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

Sp LisbonSp Lisbon
Statistic
Casa Pia
Sp Lisbon
corners won per game
4.1
4.6

corners conceded per game
6.3
2.9

Bar scales · Corners per game: 0–10. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many corners in Casa Pia vs Sp Lisbon?
The model rates over 9.5 total corners at 44.4% for Casa Pia vs Sp Lisbon.
Which team will win the corner count in Casa Pia vs Sp Lisbon?
The model rates Sp Lisbon to win the corner count at 46.2%, with a level count at 10.5%.
How many corners do Casa Pia and Sp Lisbon average this season?
Casa Pia have won 4.1 corners a game this season and Sp Lisbon 4.6.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Corner predictions today

Related

Primeira LigaCasa Pia fixtures and statsSporting CP fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.