AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

Ligue 1
AngersAngersLDWLL
Full time0-0Sun, 25 Oct 202625/1016:15UK15°C · Cloudy
LorientLorientWDLWW

Angers 0-0 Lorient cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined56.4%
Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined43.6%

Result

Angers0-0Lorient
2 yellow cardsAngers 1, Lorient 1
0 red cardsAngers 0, Lorient 0
Under 3.5No

We called Under 3.5 at 56.4% and it landed (2 in the match). We called No at 88.7% and it landed (0 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards43.6%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Azzedine Souifi

Recorded match referee.

Azzedine Souifi in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 23 7
Goals 2.52 2.00
Yellow cards 3.87 3.43
Red cards 0.17 0.00
Corners 8.4 10.4
Fouls 31.2 28.7
Both teams scored 48% 29%
Over 2.5 goals 52% 43%
Home wins 39% 43%
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
25 Oct 2026 Angers vs Lorient 0-0 0 No 2 0 13 22
16 Oct 2026 Annecy vs NancyLigue 2 1-2 3 Yes 2 0 10 19
19 Sep 2026 Angers vs Troyes 2-0 2 No 5 0 13 29
12 Sep 2026 Sochaux vs NantesLigue 2 1-0 1 No 4 0 10 33
29 Aug 2026 Lorient vs Troyes 1-2 3 Yes 0 0 7 20
22 Aug 2026 St Etienne vs GrenobleLigue 2 4-0 4 No 4 0 8 33
14 Aug 2026 Nancy vs MontpellierLigue 2 0-1 1 No 7 0 12 45
9 May 2026 Laval vs BoulogneLigue 2 2-1 3 Yes 3 0 14 25
17 Apr 2026 Nancy vs AnnecyLigue 2 1-5 6 Yes 1 0 4 34
10 Apr 2026 Guingamp vs GrenobleLigue 2 1-1 2 Yes 5 0 6 33

Azzedine Souifi referee stats

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Angers vs Lorient. The model leans toward Angers for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 65.5% 34.5%
3.5 cards 43.6% 56.4%
4.5 cards 25.1% 74.9%
5.5 cards 12.6% 87.4%

Who picks up more cards

Angers
42.4%
Level
22.7%
Lorient
34.9%

Team cards lines

Angers

Over 1.5
53.0%
Over 2.5
26.3%

Lorient

Over 1.5
47.4%
Over 2.5
21.6%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Angers's; Lorient gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Angers line Angers Lorient
-1.5 22.5% 77.5%
-0.5 42.4% 57.6%
+0.5 65.1% 34.9%
+1.5 83.0% 17.0%

Red card

Any red card11.3%
Angers red card8.0%
Lorient red card3.6%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 66.4% 33.6%
22.5 fouls 51.8% 48.2%
24.5 fouls 37.5% 62.5%
AngersAngers

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Angers at home and Lorient away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

LorientLorient
Statistic
Angers
Lorient
Yellow cards per game
1.8
·

First-half yellow cards per game
0.6
·

Second-half yellow cards per game
1.2
·

Matches with card data
0
1

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 10,293 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.5% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 43.6%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 65.5% for over 2.5 to 12.6% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 43.6%. Head to head on cards, Angers are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 42.4%, with a level count at 22.7%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, Angers over 1.5 cards sits at 53.0% and Lorient at 47.4%. A red card for either side is rated at 11.3% (Angers 8.0%, Lorient 3.6%).

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. We score every call against the result after the match.

43.6%Over 3.5 cards
11.3%Any red card
42.4%Most cards: Angers
53.0%Angers over 1.5 cards
47.4%Lorient over 1.5 cards
51.8%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 43.6% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 11.3%, unlikely, and priced as such.
The DisciplinarianAngers are the pick to collect more cards at 42.4%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 3.5 cards: over sits at 43.6%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
AngersAngers

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

LorientLorient
Statistic
Angers
Lorient
fouls per game
10.8
9.2

Bar scales · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Angers vs Lorient?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 43.6% for Angers vs Lorient.
Will there be a red card in Angers vs Lorient?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 11.3%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Angers vs Lorient?
Before kickoff, the model rated Angers to pick up more cards at 42.4%, with a level count at 22.7%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Ligue 1Angers fixtures and statsLorient fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.