Alverca 0-1 Arouca corners: our prediction vs the result
Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.
Result
Alverca0-1Arouca
We called Under 9.5 at 58.2% and it landed (6 in the match).
Model read
A moderate lean, nothing emphatic.
Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.
Conviction: Moderate
Over 9.5 corners41.8%
Corners
Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.
The corners market rewards teams that camp in the final third, below are the model total-corner probabilities. More corners are projected for Alverca.
Total corners
Both teams combined.
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 65.0% | 35.0% |
| 8.5 corners | 53.3% | 46.7% |
| 9.5 corners | 41.8% | 58.2% |
| 10.5 corners | 31.4% | 68.6% |
| 11.5 corners | 22.7% | 77.3% |
| 12.5 corners | 15.7% | 84.3% |
Who wins the corner count
AlvercaAroucaTeam corners lines
Alverca
Arouca
Corner handicap
The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Alverca's; Arouca gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.
| Alverca line | Alverca | Arouca |
|---|---|---|
| -3.5 | 27.4% | 72.6% |
| -1.5 | 47.0% | 53.0% |
| -0.5 | 57.6% | 42.4% |
| +0.5 | 67.8% | 32.2% |
Corner trends
2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Alverca at home and Arouca away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.
Bar scales · Corners per game: 0–10 · Recorded rate (%): 0–100. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 21,932 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Corners actually happened 47.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.
Our last 10 Corners calls
Our most recent Corners calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 9.5 corners at 41.8%, its strongest read on the Corners market. The total-corners ladder runs from 65.0% for over 7.5 to 15.7% for over 12.5, with over 8.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 53.3%. Head to head on corners, Alverca are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 57.6%, with a level count at 10.2%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.
In-depth analysis
Split by side, Alverca over 4.5 corners sits at 54.8% and Arouca at 35.3%. This season Alverca have averaged 5.4 corners won a game and Arouca 3.0.
These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
This season
2026/27 · Recorded results.
Bar scales · Corners per game: 0–10. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.
FAQ
How many corners in Alverca vs Arouca?
Which team will win the corner count in Alverca vs Arouca?
How many corners do Alverca and Arouca average this season?
How is this probability calculated?
Is this a betting tip?
More Primeira Liga, Corners
Related
Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
