Alverca 0-1 Arouca correct score: our prediction vs the result
Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.
Result
Alverca0-1Arouca
Final score 0-1. The model gave that exact scoreline 8.0%.
Model read
No single outcome dominates, read the distribution.
Conviction: Open
Most likely · 12.9%1-1
Correct score
Score distribution: the model probability of each exact score.
Rows = Alverca goals, columns = Arouca goals. The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12.9%.
The grid is the model's full scoreline distribution, not a single tip, but the shape of every plausible result. Read the heatmap as a map of likelihood, not a prediction of one score.
Most likely scorelines
- 1-112.9%
- 1-09.1%
- 2-18.7%
- 0-18.0%
- 1-27.7%
- 0-07.4%
- 2-06.9%
- 2-25.5%
Score probability grid
| H / A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4% | 8% | 5.4% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 9.1% | 12.9% | 7.7% | 3.3% | 1% | 0.3% |
| 2 | 6.9% | 8.7% | 5.5% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 3 | 3.3% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 1.2% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Rows: Alverca · Columns: Arouca
Goals distribution
How likely each total number of goals is, according to the model. Every goals market on this page is built from these bars. The 5+ bar covers every result with five goals or more.
0
1
2
3
4
5+
Form & head-to-head
Recent form uses each club’s available results in their stored order. Select a W/D/L result for details.
Head-to-head figures use their own recorded sample. Where individual results are available, the figures and journal cover the same meetings. Missing results are never counted as draws.
D
L
W
W
W
3 wins · 1 draw · 1 loss
W
D
L
D
W
2 wins · 2 draws · 1 loss
Head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
Overall model accuracy
We don't yet publish a graded Correct Score-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.
Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Most likely · 12.9% at 1-1, its strongest read on the Correct Score market. The goals picture is built on form: Alverca have averaged 2.0 scored and 1.0 conceded, Arouca 1.2 and 1.0 over their recent games. That fits a balanced goals environment: 50.4% for over 2.5 and 75.5% for at least two goals. Their last 2 meetings have averaged 2.0 goals a game. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.
In-depth analysis
Looking at totals, the model sees 50.4% for three or more goals and 75.5% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. Given Alverca favoured at 40.2%, a competitive game tends to open up.
These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
What was the score in Alverca vs Arouca?
How is this probability calculated?
Is this a betting tip?
More Primeira Liga, Correct Score
Related
Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
