La Liga
Alaves vs 
Ath Madrid Shots
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 24.5 shots at 47.0%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Line by line, the read runs from 59.8% for over 22.5 to 24.4% for over 28.5, with over 24.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 47.0%. Head to head on shots, Alaves are the model’s pick to have more shots at 62.2%, with a level count at 6.0%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 59.8% | 40.2% |
| 24.5 shots | 47.0% | 53.0% |
| 26.5 shots | 34.9% | 65.1% |
| 28.5 shots | 24.4% | 75.6% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
71.6%
54.8%
38.3%
51.1%
33.0%
19.1%
Shot handicap
| Alaves line | Alaves | Ath Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 36.7% | 63.3% |
| -2.5 | 49.4% | 50.6% |
| -0.5 | 62.2% | 37.8% |
| +0.5 | 68.2% | 31.8% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 73.0% | 27.0% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 60.6% | 39.4% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 47.7% | 52.3% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 35.5% | 64.5% |
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
First half / second half shots
Shots before and after the break, per game, across the number of games in brackets. The bar shows how much of the shooting happens in the first half. These come from a different source than the match shot totals above, and we only count a match when the shots before the break add up to the actual half-time score. A match where they did not is left out rather than guessed at, which is why the two sets of numbers can differ.
5.0 / 9.2
8.3 / 8.5
This season (2026/27)
14.2Alaves shots per game10.2Alaves shots faced per game5.0Alaves first-half shots9.2Alaves second-half shots16.8Ath Madrid shots per game10.0Ath Madrid shots faced per game8.3Ath Madrid first-half shots8.5Ath Madrid second-half shotsShot volume tracks territory and game state more than the scoreline, below are the model total-shot probabilities. More attempts are projected for Alaves.
In-depth analysis
Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.
47.0%Over 24.5 shots54.8%Alaves over 12.5 shots33.0%Ath Madrid over 12.5 shots60.6%Over 7.5 on targetBy team, Alaves over 12.5 shots sits at 54.8% and Ath Madrid at 33.0%. This season Alaves have averaged 14.2 shots a game and Ath Madrid 16.8. Alaves take 5.0 shots before half-time and 9.2 after, Ath Madrid 8.3 and 8.5.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Alaves vs Ath Madrid?
The model rates over 24.5 total shots at 47.0% for Alaves vs Ath Madrid.
Which team will have more shots in Alaves vs Ath Madrid?
The model rates Alaves to take more shots at 62.2%.
Do Alaves shoot more in the first or second half?
Alaves average 5.0 shots before half-time and 9.2 after, this season.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 16,705 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Shots actually happened 47.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 21 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
Our most recent Shots calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More La Liga, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
