Sociedad vs La Coruna prediction & probabilities (2026-10-11)

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Sociedad vs La Coruna: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 21 Sep 2026

La Liga
Sociedad

LWDWL

Sun, 11 Oct 202611/1015:15UK
La Coruna

DWWDL

Model’s top convictions

82%

Sociedad or draw

79%

Over 1.5 goals

61%

Over 8.5 corners

Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Model pick

Sociedad57.8%

Win probability · fair 1.73

Top signals

Sociedad or drawVery likely82.5%Fair 1.21
Over 1.5 goalsVery likely79.4%Fair 1.26
Over 8.5 cornersLikely61.2%Fair 1.63

Model read

Sociedad go into this La Liga meeting with La Coruna on 11 October 2026 as clear favourites; our model has them at 58%. Three things stand out in the data: 1) No strong lean on goals (56% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. 2) Orri Óskarsson drives the home shot volume, 1.3 on target per 90. 3) The recent series reads 3 wins for Sociedad, 1 draws and 1 for La Coruna over 5 games, 4.0 goals on average. Fatigue may matter, with La Coruna 3 days shorter on recovery than Sociedad. As a promoted side, La Coruna carry exactly the structural uncertainty our priors were built for. Form guide over the last six: Sociedad W2 D1 L3, La Coruna W2 D3 L1. Discipline says sit it out: no bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Value & higher-risk angles

Outcomes the model rates higher than the obvious price suggests, plus a few long-shot scorelines that are simply possible. These are the least likely calls on the page, so treat them as such. They are not tips, and we do not beat the sharp bookmakers.

High risk

Draw or La Coruna42.3%@ 2.37
Over 10.5 corners40.1%@ 2.49
Over 11.5 corners30.8%@ 3.25
Medium risk

Over 2.5 goals55.8%@ 1.79
Both teams to score55.4%@ 1.81
Over 9.5 corners50.5%@ 1.98
Random finds

1-1 correct score11.1%@ 9.01
2-1 correct score9.9%@ 10.10
1-0 correct score9.6%@ 10.43

Model vs market

Sociedad

57.8%

Draw

24.7%

La Coruna

17.5%

Model

no bookmaker price published for this match yet

Goals

Over 1.5Strongest read · Very likely79.4%Fair 1.26
Over 2.5Close call55.8%Fair 1.79
BTTS · YesClose call55.4%Fair 1.81

Corners

Over 8.5 cornersLikely61.2%Fair 1.63
Over 9.5 cornersClose call50.5%Fair 1.98
Over 10.5 cornersUnlikely40.1%Fair 2.49
Over 11.5 cornersUnlikely30.8%Fair 3.25
Most cornersSociedad60.0%La Coruna29.7%

Shots

Over 22.5 shotsLikely60.2%Fair 1.66
Over 24.5 shotsClose call47.5%Fair 2.11
Over 26.5 shotsUnlikely35.3%Fair 2.83
Over 28.5 shotsLong shot24.7%Fair 4.05

Recent shot volume

Sociedad12.2 taken14.8 faced
La Coruna7.8 taken13.2 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

First half / second half shots

Shots before and after the break, per game, across the number of games in brackets. The bar shows how much of the shooting happens in the first half. These come from a different source than the match shot totals above, and we only count a match when the shots before the break add up to the actual half-time score. A match where they did not is left out rather than guessed at, which is why the two sets of numbers can differ.

Sociedad (6 games)

5.0 / 7.2

La Coruna (5 games)

3.2 / 4.6

Totals line guide

0.5·1.579.4%2.555.8%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.579.4%

Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Form & head-to-head

SociedadLWDWL
La CorunaDWWDL

Last 5 meetings: Sociedad 3 · 1 draws · La Coruna 1 · 4.0 goals/game.

2018-02-02Sociedad 5-0 La Coruna
2017-09-10La Coruna 2-4 Sociedad
2017-04-23Sociedad 1-0 La Coruna
2016-12-05La Coruna 5-1 Sociedad
2016-01-16Sociedad 1-1 La Coruna

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

SociedadLa Coruna
League position#7 of 20#8 of 20
Record W-D-L3-1-32-3-1
Current streakW1L1
Points per game1.431.50
Record, home vs away1-1-11-2-0
PPG, home vs away1.331.67
Goals scored per game1.291.50
Goals conceded per game1.861.17
Scored, home vs away0.671.67
Conceded, home vs away1.331.33
1st half goals per game0.670.83
2nd half goals per game0.330.67
Corners won per game7.73.8
Cards per game2.52.3
Fouls per game12.513.5
Red cards this season12
Shots per game12.27.8
Shots faced per game14.813.2
Shots on target per game5.03.3
1st half shots per game5.03.2
2nd half shots per game7.24.6
xG for per game1.341.08
xG against per game1.831.58
Over 2.5 rate

71.4%33.3%

BTTS rate

57.1%83.3%

Clean sheets

14.3%0.0%

Rates this season:SociedadLa Coruna

League averages this season: 3.08 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 57% · BTTS in 57%. Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Orri ÓskarssonSociedad · key player
To score25.2%3.97
1+ on target46.2%2.16
2+ shots32.9%3.04
Shots/90 2.43SoT/90 1.28Goals/90 0.6
Pierre-Emerick AubameyangLa Coruna · key player
To score34.4%2.91
1+ on target69.4%1.44
2+ shots62.2%1.61
Shots/90 2.65SoT/90 1.49Goals/90 0.53
Mikel OyarzabalSociedad · in form
To score28.9%3.46
1+ on target53.8%1.86
2+ shots53.4%1.87
Shots/90 2.2SoT/90 0.95Goals/90 0.42
Luismi CruzLa Coruna · in form
To score21.9%4.57
1+ on target46.6%2.15
2+ shots13.1%7.63
Shots/90 0.94SoT/90 0.94Goals/90 0.37
Arsen ZakharyanSociedad · in form
To score4.4%22.73
1+ on target20.3%4.93
2+ shots19.8%5.05
Shots/90 3.24SoT/90 0.9Goals/90 0.18
Adama TraoréLa Coruna · in form
To score1.7%58.82
1+ on target15.1%6.62
2+ shots11.9%8.40
Shots/90 1.73SoT/90 0.48Goals/90 0.05

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Sociedad win1.78
Draw4.26
La Coruna win4.92
Both teams to score1.80

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.06
Over 1.5 goals1.26
Over 2.5 goals1.79
Over 3.5 goals2.99
Sociedad most1.78
La Coruna most4.92

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.33
Over 8.5 corners1.56
Over 9.5 corners1.93
Over 10.5 corners2.50
Sociedad most1.66
La Coruna most3.36

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.22
Over 3.5 cards1.52
Over 4.5 cards2.10
Over 5.5 cards3.22
Sociedad most2.77
La Coruna most2.21

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.36
Over 7.5 SoT1.63
Over 8.5 SoT2.06
Over 9.5 SoT2.76
Sociedad most1.73
La Coruna most3.35

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.66
Over 24.5 shots2.11
Over 26.5 shots2.83
Over 28.5 shots4.05
Sociedad most1.56
La Coruna most3.34

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.27
Over 22.5 fouls1.49
Over 24.5 fouls1.87
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 60.2% Over 24.5 47.5% Over 26.5 35.3% Over 28.5 24.7%
Most: Sociedad 64.1% Most: La Coruna 30.0%
Sociedad Over 13.2 48.1% La Coruna Over 13.2 24.3%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 73.6% Over 7.5 61.3% Over 8.5 48.4% Over 9.5 36.2%
Most: Sociedad 57.8% Most: La Coruna 29.8%
Sociedad Over 4.2 52.5% La Coruna Over 4.2 32.1%

Cards

Over 2.5 82.2% Over 3.5 65.8% Over 4.5 47.5%
Most: Sociedad 36.1% Most: La Coruna 45.3%
Sociedad Over 1.8 62.2% La Coruna Over 1.8 68.2%

Sociedad: players to watch (recent-form projection)

Each number is the player’s recent rate per 90 minutes, scaled to how long we expect them to play. Only players in this season’s squad appear. It is a projection from recent form, not a confirmed lineup: nobody has announced the team yet.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Orri Óskarsson 2.43 1.28 0.6 46.2% 32.9% 25.2%
Mikel Oyarzabal 2.2 0.95 0.42 53.8% 53.4% 28.9%
Arsen Zakharyan 3.24 0.9 0.18 20.3% 19.8% 4.4%
Gonçalo Guedes 2.46 0.88 0.3 36.4% 36.0% 14.3%
Luka Sucic 2.06 0.64 0.17 33.5% 37.8% 10.3%

La Coruna: players to watch (recent-form projection)

Each number is the player’s recent rate per 90 minutes, scaled to how long we expect them to play. Only players in this season’s squad appear. It is a projection from recent form, not a confirmed lineup: nobody has announced the team yet.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang 2.65 1.49 0.53 69.4% 62.2% 34.4%
Luismi Cruz 0.94 0.94 0.37 46.6% 13.1% 21.9%
Adama Traoré 1.73 0.48 0.05 15.1% 11.9% 1.7%
Bil Nsongo 2.03 0.37 0 22.1% 39.9% 0.0%
Angelino 0.73 0.22 0.05 17.5% 13.5% 4.3%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Worked out from the scoreline grid above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the other side fails to score. It is the model’s own percentage, scored against the result afterwards, and it is not a tip.

Sociedad clean sheet 34.7%
La Coruna clean sheet 15.4%
Sociedad win to nil 28.8%
La Coruna win to nil 9.4%

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

The model’s own percentages, with no odds attached. The smaller markets are here so you can see everything we hold a number on, not because we claim an advantage in them. The colour says how close our percentages have landed to reality on matches the model had never seen.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 56.2% draw 23.5% away 20.3%
double_chance
1X 79.7% 12 76.5% X2 43.8%
dnb
home 73.5% away 26.6%
btts
yes 55.4% no 44.6%
clean_sheet
home 35.2% away 15.4%
win_to_nil
home 29.2% away 9.4%
winning_margin
home_by_1 23.3% home_by_2 17.4% home_by_3plus 15.5%
away_by_1 12.8% away_by_2 5.4% away_by_3plus 2.1%
correct_score
0-0 5.9% 0-1 5.1% 0-2 2.9%
0-3 1.0% 0-4 0.3% 0-5 0.1%
1-0 9.6% 1-1 11.1% 1-2 5.5%
1-3 1.9% 1-4 0.5% 1-5 0.1%
2-0 9.5% 2-1 9.9% 2-2 5.2%
2-3 1.8% 2-4 0.5% 2-5 0.1%
3-0 5.9% 3-1 6.2% 3-2 3.2%
3-3 1.1% 3-4 0.3% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 2.8% 4-1 2.9% 4-2 1.5%
4-3 0.5% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 1.0% 5-1 1.1% 5-2 0.6%
5-3 0.2% 5-4 0.1% 5-5 0.0%
other 1.3%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 11.1%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 94.1% under_0.5 5.9% over_1.5 79.4%
under_1.5 20.7% over_2.5 55.8% under_2.5 44.2%
over_3.5 33.5% under_3.5 66.5% over_4.5 17.2%
under_4.5 82.9% over_5.5 7.6% under_5.5 92.4%
odd_even
odd 48.8% even 51.2%
team_home
over_0.5 84.6% under_0.5 15.4% over_1.5 55.9%
under_1.5 44.1% over_2.5 28.9% under_2.5 71.1%
team_away
over_0.5 64.8% under_0.5 35.2% over_1.5 28.1%
under_1.5 71.9% over_2.5 8.9% under_2.5 91.1%
most
home 56.2% draw 23.5% away 20.3%
handicap
home_-2.5 15.5% away_+2.5 84.5% home_-1.5 32.9%
away_+1.5 67.1% home_-0.5 56.2% away_+0.5 43.8%
home_+0.5 79.7% away_-0.5 20.3% home_+1.5 92.5%
away_-1.5 7.5% home_+2.5 97.9% away_-2.5 2.1%
total_exact
exact_0 5.9% exact_1 14.7% exact_2 23.5%
exact_3 22.4% exact_4 16.3% exact_5 9.5%
exact_6 4.6% exact_7plus 3.0%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 32.7% draw 40.1% away 27.2%
total
over_0.5 72.5% under_0.5 27.5% over_1.5 37.0%
under_1.5 63.0% over_2.5 14.1% under_2.5 85.9%
btts
yes 22.5% no 77.5%
total_exact
exact_0 27.5% exact_1 35.5% exact_2 22.9%
exact_3 9.9% exact_4plus 4.2%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 31.7% draw 36.1% away 32.2%
total
over_0.5 78.6% under_0.5 21.4% over_1.5 45.7%
under_1.5 54.4% over_2.5 20.2% under_2.5 79.8%
btts
yes 28.9% no 71.1%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 24.4% H/D 5.7% H/A 2.5%
D/H 12.7% D/D 14.5% D/A 12.9%
A/H 2.1% A/D 4.9% A/A 20.2%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 75.2% under_7.5 24.8% over_8.5 63.9%
under_8.5 36.1% over_9.5 51.8% under_9.5 48.2%
over_10.5 40.1% under_10.5 59.9% over_11.5 29.5%
under_11.5 70.5% over_12.5 20.7% under_12.5 79.3%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 77.9% under_3.5 22.1% over_4.5 63.7%
under_4.5 36.3% over_5.5 48.7% under_5.5 51.3%
team_away
over_3.5 57.9% under_3.5 42.1% over_4.5 40.5%
under_4.5 59.5% over_5.5 25.9% under_5.5 74.1%
most
home 60.2% draw 10.1% away 29.7%
handicap
home_-3.5 28.8% away_+3.5 71.2% home_-1.5 49.3%
away_+1.5 50.7% home_-0.5 60.2% away_+0.5 39.9%
home_+0.5 70.3% away_-0.5 29.7% home_+1.5 79.0%
away_-1.5 21.0% home_+3.5 91.2% away_-3.5 8.8%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 60.2% under_22.5 39.8% over_24.5 47.5%
under_24.5 52.5% over_26.5 35.3% under_26.5 64.7%
over_28.5 24.7% under_28.5 75.3%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 73.0% under_10.5 27.0% over_12.5 56.5%
under_12.5 43.5% over_14.5 40.0% under_14.5 60.0%
team_away
over_10.5 49.8% under_10.5 50.2% over_12.5 31.8%
under_12.5 68.2% over_14.5 18.2% under_14.5 81.9%
most
home 64.1% draw 5.9% away 30.0%
handicap
home_-4.5 38.7% away_+4.5 61.3% home_-2.5 51.5%
away_+2.5 48.5% home_-0.5 64.1% away_+0.5 35.9%
home_+0.5 70.0% away_-0.5 30.0% home_+2.5 80.3%
away_-2.5 19.7% home_+4.5 88.0% away_-4.5 12.0%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 73.6% under_6.5 26.4% over_7.5 61.3%
under_7.5 38.7% over_8.5 48.4% under_8.5 51.6%
over_9.5 36.2% under_9.5 63.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 69.6% under_3.5 30.4% over_4.5 52.4%
under_4.5 47.6% over_5.5 36.2% under_5.5 63.8%
team_away
over_3.5 50.3% under_3.5 49.7% over_4.5 32.1%
under_4.5 67.9% over_5.5 18.4% under_5.5 81.6%
most
home 57.9% draw 12.3% away 29.8%
handicap
home_-2.5 32.4% away_+2.5 67.6% home_-0.5 57.9%
away_+0.5 42.2% home_+0.5 70.2% away_-0.5 29.8%
home_+2.5 88.3% away_-2.5 11.7%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 82.2% under_2.5 17.8% over_3.5 65.8%
under_3.5 34.2% over_4.5 47.5% under_4.5 52.5%
over_5.5 31.0% under_5.5 69.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 62.2% under_1.5 37.8% over_2.5 36.2%
under_2.5 63.8%
team_away
over_1.5 68.2% under_1.5 31.9% over_2.5 42.9%
under_2.5 57.1%
most
home 36.1% draw 18.7% away 45.3%
handicap
home_-1.5 20.4% away_+1.5 79.6% home_-0.5 36.1%
away_+0.5 63.9% home_+0.5 54.7% away_-0.5 45.3%
home_+1.5 72.1% away_-1.5 27.9%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 78.9% under_20.5 21.1% over_22.5 67.0%
under_22.5 33.0% over_24.5 53.6% under_24.5 46.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 77.9% under_9.5 22.1% over_11.5 59.9%
under_11.5 40.1% over_13.5 40.9% under_13.5 59.1%
team_away
over_9.5 75.6% under_9.5 24.4% over_11.5 57.0%
under_11.5 43.0% over_13.5 37.9% under_13.5 62.1%
most
home 48.7% draw 6.9% away 44.4%
handicap
home_-3.5 29.1% away_+3.5 70.9% home_-0.5 48.7%
away_+0.5 51.3% home_+2.5 68.7% away_-2.5 31.3%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 21.5% no 78.5%
home
yes 6.3% no 93.7%
away
yes 16.2% no 83.8%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55416 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Sociedad predictions · La Coruna predictions · La Liga

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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