La Liga
Real Madrid vs 
Villarreal Shots
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 24.5 shots at 55.8%, its strongest read on the Shots market. The total-shots ladder runs from 68.0% for over 22.5 to 31.8% for over 28.5, with over 24.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 55.8%. Between the two sides, Real Madrid are the model’s pick to have more shots at 68.8%, with a level count at 5.4%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 68.0% | 32.0% |
| 24.5 shots | 55.8% | 44.2% |
| 26.5 shots | 43.4% | 56.6% |
| 28.5 shots | 31.8% | 68.2% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
79.8%
65.3%
49.2%
52.0%
33.8%
19.7%
Shot handicap
| Real Madrid line | Real Madrid | Villarreal |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 44.3% | 55.7% |
| -2.5 | 56.8% | 43.2% |
| -0.5 | 68.8% | 31.3% |
| +0.5 | 74.1% | 25.9% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 80.4% | 19.6% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 69.8% | 30.2% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 57.8% | 42.2% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 45.6% | 54.4% |
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
First half / second half shots
Shots before and after the break, per game, across the number of games in brackets. The bar shows how much of the shooting happens in the first half. These come from a different source than the match shot totals above, and we only count a match when the shots before the break add up to the actual half-time score. A match where they did not is left out rather than guessed at, which is why the two sets of numbers can differ.
10.2 / 10.5
7.2 / 7.6
This season (2026/27)
20.7Real Madrid shots per game11.8Real Madrid shots faced per game10.2Real Madrid first-half shots10.5Real Madrid second-half shots15.2Villarreal shots per game14.0Villarreal shots faced per game7.2Villarreal first-half shots7.6Villarreal second-half shotsShot volume tracks territory and game state more than the scoreline, below are the model total-shot probabilities. The model leans to Real Madrid.
In-depth analysis
These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.
55.8%Over 24.5 shots65.3%Real Madrid over 12.5 shots33.8%Villarreal over 12.5 shots69.8%Over 7.5 on targetBy team, Real Madrid over 12.5 shots sits at 65.3% and Villarreal at 33.8%. This season Real Madrid have averaged 20.7 shots a game and Villarreal 15.2. Real Madrid take 10.2 shots before half-time and 10.5 after, Villarreal 7.2 and 7.6.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Real Madrid vs Villarreal?
The model rates over 24.5 total shots at 55.8% for Real Madrid vs Villarreal.
Which team will have more shots in Real Madrid vs Villarreal?
The model rates Real Madrid to take more shots at 68.8%.
Do Real Madrid shoot more in the first or second half?
Real Madrid average 10.2 shots before half-time and 10.5 after, this season.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 12,903 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Shots actually happened 56.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 21 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
Our most recent Shots calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More La Liga, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
