La Liga
Alaves vs 
Ath Madrid Double Chance
Part of a bigger picture: see the full match page, where this comes from.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Home or Away at 73.8%, its strongest read on the Double Chance market. For context, Alaves are favoured at 38.3%, a competitive game that shapes how this market plays out. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 1.6 goals a game. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Double Chance
Draw no bet
Draw no bet means a draw gives you your stake back. So we take the draw out and share what is left between the two sides.
Winning margin
| Margin | Probability |
|---|---|
| Alaves by 1 | 19.7% |
| Alaves by 2 | 10.9% |
| Alaves by 3+ | 6.2% |
| Ath Madrid by 1 | 19.5% |
| Ath Madrid by 2 | 10.7% |
| Ath Madrid by 3+ | 6.0% |
| Draw | 26.2% |
Goal handicap
| Alaves line | Alaves | Ath Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 17.1% | 82.9% |
| -0.5 | 36.9% | 63.1% |
| +0.5 | 63.8% | 36.2% |
| +1.5 | 83.3% | 16.7% |
This season (2026/27)
1.6Alaves goals scored per game0.9Alaves goals conceded per game2.3Ath Madrid goals scored per game1.0Ath Madrid goals conceded per gameDouble chance trades a slice of return for a wider safety net. The highest-probability cover is Alaves or Ath Madrid on the model numbers.
In-depth analysis
These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.
55.4%Both Teams to Score50.7%Over 2.5 goalsOn the result, Alaves are favoured at 38.3%. How the game flows often matters more here than the pre-match favourite.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
Key players
This season’s squad only, rated on recent form; a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Alaves 1 · 2 draws · Ath Madrid 2 · 1.6 goals/game.
FAQ
What is the most likely double chance in Alaves vs Ath Madrid?
Home or Away is the highest-probability double chance for Alaves vs Ath Madrid at 73.8%.
What is the draw no bet probability in Alaves vs Ath Madrid?
With the draw taken out, the model rates Alaves at 50.5% and Ath Madrid at 49.5%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Double Chance accuracy
How our Double Chance calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 40,105 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Double Chance actually happened 73.4% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 21 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Double Chance calls
Our most recent Double Chance calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More La Liga, Double Chance
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
