La Liga
Alaves vs 
Ath Madrid Over / Under 2.5 Goals
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 2.5 goals at 50.7%, its strongest read on the Over / Under 2.5 Goals market. Recent output points the same way: Alaves have averaged 1.6 scored and 1.2 conceded, Ath Madrid 2.4 and 1.2 over their recent games. That fits a balanced goals environment: 50.7% for over 2.5 and 75.8% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 1.6 goals a game. Alaves have gone over 2.5 in 2 of their last 5, Ath Madrid in 5 of 5. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Total goals, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 92.7% | 7.3% |
| 1.5 goals | 75.8% | 24.2% |
| 2.5 goals | 50.7% | 49.3% |
| 3.5 goals | 28.6% | 71.4% |
| 4.5 goals | 13.8% | 86.3% |
| 5.5 goals | 5.7% | 94.3% |
Team goal lines
74.3%
39.4%
15.7%
73.8%
38.8%
15.4%
First-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 62.5% | 37.5% |
| 1.5 goals | 25.7% | 74.3% |
| 2.5 goals | 7.7% | 92.3% |
Second-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 83.4% | 16.6% |
| 1.5 goals | 53.6% | 46.4% |
| 2.5 goals | 26.8% | 73.2% |
This season (2026/27)
1.6Alaves goals scored per game0.9Alaves goals conceded per game42.9%Alaves Over 2.5 rate0.7Alaves 1st-half goals per game2.3Ath Madrid goals scored per game1.0Ath Madrid goals conceded per game83.3%Ath Madrid Over 2.5 rate0.7Ath Madrid 1st-half goals per gameGoals distribution
How likely each total number of goals is, according to the model. Every goals market on this page is built from these bars. The 5+ bar covers every result with five goals or more.
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5+
In-depth analysis
Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. We score every call against the result after the match.
55.4%Both Teams to Score50.7%Over 2.5 goalsOn the goals side, the model sees 50.7% for three or more goals and 75.8% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. With Alaves favoured at 38.3%, neither side dominating can mean an end-to-end match.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Alaves to win. See the full prediction →
Key players
This season’s squad only, rated on recent form; a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Alaves 1 · 2 draws · Ath Madrid 2 · 1.6 goals/game.
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Alaves vs Ath Madrid?
Our model rates Over 2.5 goals at 50.7% for Alaves vs Ath Madrid.
Will there be a first-half goal in Alaves vs Ath Madrid?
The model rates at least one goal before half-time at 62.5%.
How often have Alaves gone over 2.5 recently?
Alaves have gone over 2.5 in 2 of their last 5, Ath Madrid in 5 of 5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals accuracy
How our Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 18,270 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Over / Under 2.5 Goals actually happened 54.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 21 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls
Our most recent Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More La Liga, Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
