La Liga
Alaves vs 
Ath Madrid Correct Score
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Most likely · 12.8% at 1-1, its strongest read on the Correct Score market. Recent output points the same way: Alaves have averaged 1.6 scored and 1.2 conceded, Ath Madrid 2.4 and 1.2 over their recent games. That fits a balanced goals environment: 50.7% for over 2.5 and 75.8% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 1.6 goals a game. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Correct Score
| Scoreline | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.8% |
| 1-0 | 8.5% |
| 0-1 | 8.4% |
| 2-1 | 8.3% |
| 1-2 | 8.2% |
| 0-0 | 7.3% |
| 2-0 | 6.2% |
| 0-2 | 6.1% |
Score probability grid
| Alaves \ Ath Madrid | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7% | 8% | 6% | 3% | 1% | · |
| 1 | 9% | 13% | 8% | 4% | 1% | · |
| 2 | 6% | 8% | 6% | 2% | 1% | · |
| 3 | 3% | 4% | 3% | 1% | · | · |
| 4 | 1% | 1% | 1% | · | · | · |
| 5 | · | · | · | · | · | · |
Rows = Alaves goals, columns = Ath Madrid. The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12.8%. The grid is the model’s full scoreline distribution, not a single tip, but the shape of every plausible result. Read the heatmap as a map of likelihood, not a prediction of one score.
Goals distribution
How likely each total number of goals is, according to the model. Every goals market on this page is built from these bars. The 5+ bar covers every result with five goals or more.
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In-depth analysis
Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.
55.4%Both Teams to Score50.7%Over 2.5 goalsOn the goals side, the model sees 50.7% for three or more goals and 75.8% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. With Alaves favoured at 38.3%, neither side dominating can mean an end-to-end match.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
Key players
This season’s squad only, rated on recent form; a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Alaves 1 · 2 draws · Ath Madrid 2 · 1.6 goals/game.
FAQ
What is the most likely score in Alaves vs Ath Madrid?
The model's most likely scoreline for Alaves vs Ath Madrid is 1-1 at 12.8%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Overall model accuracy
We don’t yet publish a graded Correct Score-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.
Predictions & track record updated 21 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
More La Liga, Correct Score
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
