La Liga
Elche vs 
Celta Shots
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 24.5 shots at 47.4%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Across the lines, the model goes from 60.1% for over 22.5 to 24.7% for over 28.5, with over 24.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 47.4%. On the shot count, Elche are the model’s pick to have more shots at 62.5%, with a level count at 6.0%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 60.1% | 39.9% |
| 24.5 shots | 47.4% | 52.6% |
| 26.5 shots | 35.2% | 64.8% |
| 28.5 shots | 24.7% | 75.3% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
72.0%
55.4%
38.8%
51.0%
32.9%
19.0%
Shot handicap
| Elche line | Elche | Celta |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 37.1% | 62.9% |
| -2.5 | 49.8% | 50.2% |
| -0.5 | 62.5% | 37.5% |
| +0.5 | 68.5% | 31.5% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 73.5% | 26.5% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 61.2% | 38.8% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 48.3% | 51.7% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 36.1% | 63.9% |
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
First half / second half shots
Shots before and after the break, per game, across the number of games in brackets. The bar shows how much of the shooting happens in the first half. These come from a different source than the match shot totals above, and we only count a match when the shots before the break add up to the actual half-time score. A match where they did not is left out rather than guessed at, which is why the two sets of numbers can differ.
3.2 / 8.7
3.8 / 6.0
This season (2026/27)
11.7Elche shots per game14.0Elche shots faced per game3.2Elche first-half shots8.7Elche second-half shots9.8Celta shots per game12.7Celta shots faced per game3.8Celta first-half shots6.0Celta second-half shotsShot counts move with pressure, not with the result, below are the model total-shot probabilities. It edges Elche.
In-depth analysis
Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. The track record is public, misses included.
47.4%Over 24.5 shots55.4%Elche over 12.5 shots32.9%Celta over 12.5 shots61.2%Over 7.5 on targetFor the team lines, Elche over 12.5 shots sits at 55.4% and Celta at 32.9%. This season Elche have averaged 11.7 shots a game and Celta 9.8. Elche take 3.2 shots before half-time and 8.7 after, Celta 3.8 and 6.0.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Elche vs Celta?
The model rates over 24.5 total shots at 47.4% for Elche vs Celta.
Which team will have more shots in Elche vs Celta?
The model rates Elche to take more shots at 62.5%.
Do Elche shoot more in the first or second half?
Elche average 3.2 shots before half-time and 8.7 after, this season.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 16,705 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Shots actually happened 47.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 21 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
Our most recent Shots calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More La Liga, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
