La Liga
Sociedad vs 
La Coruna Corners
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 9.5 corners at 50.5%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Line by line, the read runs from 75.2% for over 7.5 to 20.7% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 51.8%. Between the two sides, Sociedad are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 60.2%, with a level count at 10.1%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Corners
Total corners, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 75.2% | 24.8% |
| 8.5 corners | 63.9% | 36.1% |
| 9.5 corners | 51.8% | 48.2% |
| 10.5 corners | 40.1% | 59.9% |
| 11.5 corners | 29.5% | 70.5% |
| 12.5 corners | 20.7% | 79.3% |
Who wins the corner count
Team corner lines
77.9%
63.7%
48.7%
57.9%
40.5%
25.9%
Corner handicap
| Sociedad line | Sociedad | La Coruna |
|---|---|---|
| -3.5 | 28.8% | 71.2% |
| -1.5 | 49.3% | 50.7% |
| -0.5 | 60.2% | 39.9% |
| +0.5 | 70.3% | 29.7% |
This season (2026/27)
7.7Sociedad corners won per game3.8Sociedad corners conceded per game3.8La Coruna corners won per game5.3La Coruna corners conceded per gameCorner counts follow pressure and wide play, below are the model total-corner probabilities. More corners are projected for Sociedad.
In-depth analysis
These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.
51.8%Over 9.5 corners63.7%Sociedad over 4.5 corners40.5%La Coruna over 4.5 corners50.0%Odd corner totalSplit by side, Sociedad over 4.5 corners sits at 63.7% and La Coruna at 40.5%. This season Sociedad have averaged 7.7 corners won a game and La Coruna 3.8.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many corners in Sociedad vs La Coruna?
The model rates over 9.5 total corners at 51.8% for Sociedad vs La Coruna.
Which team will win the corner count in Sociedad vs La Coruna?
The model rates Sociedad to win the corner count at 60.2%, with a level count at 10.1%.
How many corners do Sociedad and La Coruna average this season?
Sociedad have won 7.7 corners a game this season and La Coruna 3.8.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 23,762 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Corners actually happened 54.2% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 21 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Corners calls
Our most recent Corners calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More La Liga, Corners
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
