AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

Championship
WolvesWolvesWLLWD
Full time1-0Sat, 24 Oct 202624/1015:00UK
WatfordWatfordLLLLW

Wolves 1-0 Watford cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined62.7%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined37.3%

Result

Wolves1-0Watford
7 yellow cardsWolves 4, Watford 3
0 red cardsWolves 0, Watford 0
Over 3.5No

We called Over 3.5 at 62.7% and it landed (7 in the match). We called No at 97.4% and it landed (0 in the match).

Model read

A moderate lean, nothing emphatic.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Moderate

Over 3.5 cards62.7%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Bobby Madley

Recorded match referee.

Bobby Madley in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 211 4
Goals 2.53 Not available
Yellow cards 3.56 Not available
Red cards 0.17 Not available
Corners 10.5 Not available
Fouls 21.9 Not available
Both teams scored 54% Not available
Over 2.5 goals 49% Not available
Home wins 43% Not available
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
15 Sep 2026 Middlesbrough vs Millwall 2-2 4 Yes 2 0 15 15
5 Sep 2026 Stoke vs Charlton 4-0 4 No 5 1 8 33
29 Aug 2026 Watford vs West Ham 1-1 2 Yes 4 0 14 17
15 Aug 2026 Middlesbrough vs Lincoln 2-1 3 Yes 2 0 10 24
25 Apr 2026 Oxford vs Sheffield Weds 4-1 5 Yes 1 0 8 27
22 Apr 2026 Charlton vs Ipswich 1-2 3 Yes 4 0 5 29
11 Apr 2026 Stoke vs Blackburn 1-1 2 Yes 6 1 7 19
6 Apr 2026 Crawley Town vs GrimsbyLeague Two 0-2 2 No 2 1 12 23
3 Apr 2026 West Brom vs Wrexham 2-2 4 Yes 3 0 10 17
28 Mar 2026 Barrow vs BromleyLeague Two 2-1 3 Yes 6 0 10 25

Bobby Madley referee stats

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Wolves vs Watford. It tips Watford for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 80.5% 19.5%
3.5 cards 62.7% 37.3%
4.5 cards 43.4% 56.6%
5.5 cards 26.7% 73.3%

Who picks up more cards

Wolves
27.5%
Level
18.8%
Watford
53.7%

Team cards lines

Wolves

Over 1.5
53.8%
Over 2.5
27.0%

Watford

Over 1.5
71.6%
Over 2.5
46.1%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Wolves's; Watford gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Wolves line Wolves Watford
-1.5 13.6% 86.4%
-0.5 27.5% 72.5%
+0.5 46.3% 53.7%
+1.5 65.8% 34.2%

Red card

Any red card2.6%
Wolves red card0.3%
Watford red card2.3%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 64.7% 35.3%
22.5 fouls 49.3% 50.7%
24.5 fouls 34.4% 65.6%

Recent referees

The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.

Team Referee Games Cards/g Team cards/g
Wolves F Hallam 2 5.0 2.0
Wolves L Smith 2 3.0 1.0
Watford J Busby 2 3.5 2.0

Swipe to see all referee stats →

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 10,239 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.7% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 28 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 62.7%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 80.5% for over 2.5 to 26.7% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 43.4%. Head to head on cards, Watford are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 53.7%, with a level count at 18.8%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.

In-depth analysis

By team, Wolves over 1.5 cards sits at 53.8% and Watford at 71.6%. A red card for either side is rated at 2.6% (Wolves 0.3%, Watford 2.3%). Wolves’s most frequent referee this season, F Hallam, has averaged 5.0 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff.

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.

62.7%Over 3.5 cards
2.6%Any red card
53.7%Most cards: Watford
53.8%Wolves over 1.5 cards
71.6%Watford over 1.5 cards
49.3%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 62.7% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Referee WatcherF Hallam, Wolves’s most frequent referee this season, averages 5.0 cards a game. These historical averages do not identify this match’s referee.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 2.6%, a low-probability event, but one that reshapes every line when it lands.
The DisciplinarianWatford are the pick to collect more cards at 53.7%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.

FAQ

How many cards in Wolves vs Watford?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 62.7% for Wolves vs Watford.
Will there be a red card in Wolves vs Watford?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 2.6%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Wolves vs Watford?
Before kickoff, the model rated Watford to pick up more cards at 53.7%, with a level count at 18.8%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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ChampionshipWolves fixtures and statsWatford fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.