AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 28 Oct 2026

Championship
NorwichNorwichLLLLW
Sat, 31 Oct 202631/1012:30UK
WatfordWatfordLLLWL

Norwich vs Watford cards prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined63%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined37%

Model read

A moderate lean, nothing emphatic.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Moderate

Over 3.5 cards63.0%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Norwich vs Watford. The model leans toward Watford for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 80.8% 19.2%
3.5 cards 63.0% 37.0%
4.5 cards 43.8% 56.2%
5.5 cards 27.0% 73.0%

Who picks up more cards

Norwich
32.9%
Level
19.5%
Watford
47.7%

Team cards lines

Norwich

Over 1.5
58.6%
Over 2.5
31.6%

Watford

Over 1.5
68.5%
Over 2.5
42.3%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Norwich's; Watford gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Norwich line Norwich Watford
-1.5 17.3% 82.7%
-0.5 32.9% 67.1%
+0.5 52.3% 47.7%
+1.5 71.1% 29.0%

Red card

Any red card5.4%
Norwich red card0.5%
Watford red card4.9%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 61.3% 38.7%
22.5 fouls 45.7% 54.3%
24.5 fouls 31.1% 68.9%

Recent referees

The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.

Team Referee Games Cards/g Team cards/g
Norwich A Kitchen 2 3.0 1.5
Watford J Busby 2 3.5 2.0

Swipe to see all referee stats →

NorwichNorwich

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Norwich at home and Watford away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

WatfordWatford
Statistic
Norwich
Watford
Yellow cards per game
2.2
3.0

First-half yellow cards per game
0.8
1.3

Second-half yellow cards per game
1.4
1.7

Matches with card data
6
2
Red cards this season
1
·

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 10,239 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.7% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 28 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 63.0%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 80.8% for over 2.5 to 27.0% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 43.8%. On the card count, Watford are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 47.7%, with a level count at 19.5%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.

In-depth analysis

For the team lines, Norwich over 1.5 cards sits at 58.6% and Watford at 68.5%. A red card for either side is rated at 5.4% (Norwich 0.5%, Watford 4.9%). Norwich’s most frequent referee this season, A Kitchen, has averaged 3.0 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff.

63.0%Over 3.5 cards
5.4%Any red card
47.7%Most cards: Watford
58.6%Norwich over 1.5 cards
68.5%Watford over 1.5 cards
45.7%Over 22.5 fouls

We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 63.0% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Referee WatcherA Kitchen, Norwich’s most frequent referee this season, averages 3.0 cards a game. These historical averages do not identify this match’s referee.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 5.4%, unlikely, and priced as such.
The DisciplinarianWatford are the pick to collect more cards at 47.7%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
NorwichNorwich

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

WatfordWatford
Statistic
Norwich
Watford
fouls per game
11.3
11.3

Bar scales · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Norwich vs Watford?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 63.0% for Norwich vs Watford.
Will there be a red card in Norwich vs Watford?
The model rates a red card for either side at 5.4%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Norwich vs Watford?
The model rates Watford to pick up more cards at 47.7%, with a level count at 19.5%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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ChampionshipNorwich fixtures and statsWatford fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.