AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 28 Oct 2026

Championship
Sheffield UnitedSheff UtdLWLWD
Fri, 30 Oct 202630/1020:00UK
WrexhamWrexhamWDLWL

Sheffield United vs Wrexham cards prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined52.1%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined47.9%

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards52.1%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Sheffield United vs Wrexham. It tips Wrexham for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 72.7% 27.3%
3.5 cards 52.1% 47.9%
4.5 cards 32.7% 67.3%
5.5 cards 18.1% 81.9%

Who picks up more cards

Sheffield United
34.7%
Level
21.2%
Wrexham
44.0%

Team cards lines

Sheffield United

Over 1.5
52.8%
Over 2.5
26.1%

Wrexham

Over 1.5
59.5%
Over 2.5
32.5%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Sheffield United's; Wrexham gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Sheffield United line Sheffield United Wrexham
-1.5 17.7% 82.3%
-0.5 34.7% 65.3%
+0.5 56.0% 44.0%
+1.5 75.3% 24.7%

Red card

Any red card6.6%
Sheffield United red card3.0%
Wrexham red card3.7%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 55.6% 44.5%
22.5 fouls 39.8% 60.3%
24.5 fouls 25.9% 74.1%

Recent referees

The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.

Team Referee Games Cards/g Team cards/g
Sheffield United J Smith 2 6.0 3.0
Wrexham M Donohue 2 3.0 1.0

Swipe to see all referee stats →

Sheffield UnitedSheffield United

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Sheffield United at home and Wrexham away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

WrexhamWrexham
Statistic
Sheffield United
Wrexham
Yellow cards per game
2.0
1.3

First-half yellow cards per game
0.8
0.6

Second-half yellow cards per game
1.3
0.8

Matches with card data
4
3

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 11,337 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 28 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 52.1%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 72.7% for over 2.5 to 18.1% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 52.1%. Head to head on cards, Wrexham are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 44.0%, with a level count at 21.2%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, Sheffield United over 1.5 cards sits at 52.8% and Wrexham at 59.5%. A red card for either side is rated at 6.6% (Sheffield United 3.0%, Wrexham 3.7%). Sheffield United’s most frequent referee this season, J Smith, has averaged 6.0 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff.

Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.

52.1%Over 3.5 cards
6.6%Any red card
44.0%Most cards: Wrexham
52.8%Sheffield United over 1.5 cards
59.5%Wrexham over 1.5 cards
39.8%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 52.1% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Referee WatcherJ Smith, Sheffield United’s most frequent referee this season, averages 6.0 cards a game. These historical averages do not identify this match’s referee.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 6.6%, a low-probability event, but one that reshapes every line when it lands.
The DisciplinarianWrexham are the pick to collect more cards at 44.0%, bookings follow the side defending under pressure.
Sheffield UnitedSheffield United

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

WrexhamWrexham
Statistic
Sheffield United
Wrexham
fouls per game
11.3
10.7

Bar scales · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Sheffield United vs Wrexham?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 52.1% for Sheffield United vs Wrexham.
Will there be a red card in Sheffield United vs Wrexham?
The model rates a red card for either side at 6.6%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Sheffield United vs Wrexham?
The model rates Wrexham to pick up more cards at 44.0%, with a level count at 21.2%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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ChampionshipSheffield United fixtures and statsWrexham fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.