AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

League Two
WalsallWalsallDDWDD
Full time3-0Tue, 20 Oct 202620/1019:45UK
OldhamOldhamLLLLD

Walsall 3-0 Oldham cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined51.8%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined48.2%

Result

Walsall3-0Oldham
6 yellow cardsWalsall 3, Oldham 3
1 red cardsWalsall 1, Oldham 0
Over 3.5No

We called Over 3.5 at 51.8% and it landed (6 in the match). We called No at 91.1% and it missed (1 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards51.8%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

A Dale

Recorded match referee.

A Dale in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 9 4
Goals 2.78 Not available
Yellow cards 3.33 Not available
Red cards 0.33 Not available
Corners 8.6 Not available
Fouls 21.1 Not available
Both teams scored 44% Not available
Over 2.5 goals 44% Not available
Home wins 44% Not available
Latest 9 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
20 Oct 2026 Walsall vs Oldham 3-0 3 No 6 1 9 34
3 Oct 2026 Rochdale vs Swindon 1-0 1 No 0 1 16 25
1 Sep 2026 Northampton vs Crawley Town 1-1 2 Yes 2 1 8 15
15 Aug 2026 Chesterfield vs Fleetwood Town 0-1 1 No 4 0 6 22
11 Apr 2026 Walsall vs Cheltenham 0-4 4 No 2 0 5 19
21 Mar 2026 Cambridge vs Salford 1-0 1 No 6 0 8 22
7 Mar 2026 Chesterfield vs Shrewsbury 2-3 5 Yes 3 0 9 15
14 Feb 2026 Oldham vs Fleetwood Town 1-1 2 Yes 2 0 14 18
24 Jan 2026 Milton Keynes Dons vs Shrewsbury 5-1 6 Yes 5 0 2 20

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Walsall vs Oldham. It tips Oldham for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 72.4% 27.6%
3.5 cards 51.8% 48.2%
4.5 cards 32.4% 67.6%
5.5 cards 17.8% 82.2%

Who picks up more cards

Walsall
37.0%
Level
21.4%
Oldham
41.6%

Team cards lines

Walsall

Over 1.5
54.3%
Over 2.5
27.5%

Oldham

Over 1.5
57.6%
Over 2.5
30.6%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Walsall's; Oldham gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Walsall line Walsall Oldham
-1.5 19.3% 80.7%
-0.5 37.0% 63.0%
+0.5 58.4% 41.6%
+1.5 77.3% 22.8%

Red card

Any red card8.9%
Walsall red card2.7%
Oldham red card6.4%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 73.9% 26.1%
22.5 fouls 59.7% 40.3%
24.5 fouls 44.6% 55.4%

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 11,337 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 28 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 51.8%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 72.4% for over 2.5 to 17.8% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 51.8%. Head to head on cards, Oldham are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 41.6%, with a level count at 21.4%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.

In-depth analysis

By team, Walsall over 1.5 cards sits at 54.3% and Oldham at 57.6%. A red card for either side is rated at 8.9% (Walsall 2.7%, Oldham 6.4%).

Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.

51.8%Over 3.5 cards
8.9%Any red card
41.6%Most cards: Oldham
54.3%Walsall over 1.5 cards
57.6%Oldham over 1.5 cards
59.7%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 51.8% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 8.9%, unlikely, and priced as such.
The DisciplinarianOldham are the pick to collect more cards at 41.6%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 3.5 cards: over sits at 51.8%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.

FAQ

How many cards in Walsall vs Oldham?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 51.8% for Walsall vs Oldham.
Will there be a red card in Walsall vs Oldham?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 8.9%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Walsall vs Oldham?
Before kickoff, the model rated Oldham to pick up more cards at 41.6%, with a level count at 21.4%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

League TwoWalsall fixtures and statsOldham fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.