La Liga
Vallecano vs 
Ath Bilbao Shots
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 24.5 shots at 51.2%, its strongest read on the Shots market. The total-shots ladder runs from 63.8% for over 22.5 to 27.9% for over 28.5, with over 24.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 51.2%. Between the two sides, Vallecano are the model’s pick to have more shots at 61.8%, with a level count at 5.9%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 63.8% | 36.2% |
| 24.5 shots | 51.2% | 48.8% |
| 26.5 shots | 39.0% | 61.1% |
| 28.5 shots | 27.9% | 72.1% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
73.8%
57.5%
41.0%
54.3%
36.1%
21.5%
Shot handicap
| Vallecano line | Vallecano | Ath Bilbao |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 36.7% | 63.3% |
| -2.5 | 49.2% | 50.8% |
| -0.5 | 61.8% | 38.2% |
| +0.5 | 67.8% | 32.2% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 77.7% | 22.3% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 66.4% | 33.7% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 53.9% | 46.1% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 41.6% | 58.4% |
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
First half / second half shots
Shots before and after the break, per game, across the number of games in brackets. The bar shows how much of the shooting happens in the first half. These come from a different source than the match shot totals above, and we only count a match when the shots before the break add up to the actual half-time score. A match where they did not is left out rather than guessed at, which is why the two sets of numbers can differ.
5.3 / 7.3
7.8 / 6.2
This season (2026/27)
12.5Vallecano shots per game17.7Vallecano shots faced per game5.3Vallecano first-half shots7.3Vallecano second-half shots14.0Ath Bilbao shots per game11.0Ath Bilbao shots faced per game7.8Ath Bilbao first-half shots6.2Ath Bilbao second-half shotsShot counts move with pressure, not with the result, below are the model total-shot probabilities. It edges Vallecano.
In-depth analysis
These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
51.2%Over 24.5 shots57.5%Vallecano over 12.5 shots36.1%Ath Bilbao over 12.5 shots66.4%Over 7.5 on targetSplit by side, Vallecano over 12.5 shots sits at 57.5% and Ath Bilbao at 36.1%. This season Vallecano have averaged 12.5 shots a game and Ath Bilbao 14.0. Vallecano take 5.3 shots before half-time and 7.3 after, Ath Bilbao 7.8 and 6.2.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Vallecano vs Ath Bilbao?
The model rates over 24.5 total shots at 51.2% for Vallecano vs Ath Bilbao.
Which team will have more shots in Vallecano vs Ath Bilbao?
The model rates Vallecano to take more shots at 61.8%.
Do Vallecano shoot more in the first or second half?
Vallecano average 5.3 shots before half-time and 7.3 after, this season.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 12,903 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Shots actually happened 56.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 21 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
Our most recent Shots calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More La Liga, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
