La Liga
Vallecano vs 
Ath Bilbao Over / Under 2.5 Goals
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Under 2.5 goals at 50.8%, its strongest read on the Over / Under 2.5 Goals market. The goals picture is built on form: Vallecano have averaged 1.8 scored and 2.6 conceded, Ath Bilbao 1.4 and 1.2 over their recent games. That fits a balanced goals environment: 49.2% for over 2.5 and 74.7% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 2.2 goals a game. Vallecano have gone over 2.5 in 4 of their last 5, Ath Bilbao in 2 of 5. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Total goals, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 92.3% | 7.8% |
| 1.5 goals | 74.7% | 25.3% |
| 2.5 goals | 49.2% | 50.8% |
| 3.5 goals | 27.3% | 72.7% |
| 4.5 goals | 12.9% | 87.1% |
| 5.5 goals | 5.2% | 94.8% |
Team goal lines
76.5%
42.6%
18.0%
69.6%
33.4%
11.9%
First-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 66.1% | 33.9% |
| 1.5 goals | 29.5% | 70.6% |
| 2.5 goals | 9.6% | 90.4% |
Second-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 77.0% | 23.0% |
| 1.5 goals | 43.1% | 56.9% |
| 2.5 goals | 18.3% | 81.7% |
This season (2026/27)
1.6Vallecano goals scored per game2.3Vallecano goals conceded per game71.4%Vallecano Over 2.5 rate1.0Vallecano 1st-half goals per game1.2Ath Bilbao goals scored per game1.0Ath Bilbao goals conceded per game33.3%Ath Bilbao Over 2.5 rate0.4Ath Bilbao 1st-half goals per gameGoals distribution
How likely each total number of goals is, according to the model. Every goals market on this page is built from these bars. The 5+ bar covers every result with five goals or more.
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In-depth analysis
These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. We score every call against the result after the match.
53.8%Both Teams to Score49.2%Over 2.5 goalsFor the goal environment, the model sees 49.2% for three or more goals and 74.7% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. Given Vallecano favoured at 42.2%, a competitive game tends to open up.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Vallecano to win. See the full prediction →
Key players
This season’s squad only, rated on recent form; a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Vallecano 0 · 1 draws · Ath Bilbao 4 · 2.2 goals/game.
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Vallecano vs Ath Bilbao?
Our model rates Over 2.5 goals at 49.2% for Vallecano vs Ath Bilbao.
Will there be a first-half goal in Vallecano vs Ath Bilbao?
The model rates at least one goal before half-time at 66.1%.
How often have Vallecano gone over 2.5 recently?
Vallecano have gone over 2.5 in 4 of their last 5, Ath Bilbao in 2 of 5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals accuracy
How our Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 20,722 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Over / Under 2.5 Goals actually happened 47.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 21 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls
Our most recent Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More La Liga, Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
