La Liga
Vallecano vs 
Ath Bilbao Correct Score
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Most likely · 12.9% at 1-1, its strongest read on the Correct Score market. Recent output points the same way: Vallecano have averaged 1.8 scored and 2.6 conceded, Ath Bilbao 1.4 and 1.2 over their recent games. That fits a balanced goals environment: 49.2% for over 2.5 and 74.7% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 2.2 goals a game. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Correct Score
| Scoreline | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.9% |
| 1-0 | 9.7% |
| 2-1 | 8.9% |
| 0-1 | 7.9% |
| 0-0 | 7.8% |
| 2-0 | 7.5% |
| 1-2 | 7.3% |
| 2-2 | 5.3% |
Score probability grid
| Vallecano \ Ath Bilbao | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8% | 8% | 5% | 2% | 1% | · |
| 1 | 10% | 13% | 7% | 3% | 1% | · |
| 2 | 8% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% | · |
| 3 | 4% | 4% | 3% | 1% | · | · |
| 4 | 1% | 2% | 1% | · | · | · |
| 5 | · | · | · | · | · | · |
Rows = Vallecano goals, columns = Ath Bilbao. The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12.9%. No exact score is ever truly likely; the value is in the full distribution the model assigns. The brightest cells are where the match is most likely to land.
Goals distribution
How likely each total number of goals is, according to the model. Every goals market on this page is built from these bars. The 5+ bar covers every result with five goals or more.
0
1
2
3
4
5+
In-depth analysis
Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. We score every call against the result after the match.
53.8%Both Teams to Score49.2%Over 2.5 goalsFor the goal environment, the model sees 49.2% for three or more goals and 74.7% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. With Vallecano favoured at 42.2%, neither side dominating can mean an end-to-end match.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
Key players
This season’s squad only, rated on recent form; a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Vallecano 0 · 1 draws · Ath Bilbao 4 · 2.2 goals/game.
FAQ
What is the most likely score in Vallecano vs Ath Bilbao?
The model's most likely scoreline for Vallecano vs Ath Bilbao is 1-1 at 12.9%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Overall model accuracy
We don’t yet publish a graded Correct Score-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.
Predictions & track record updated 21 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
More La Liga, Correct Score
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
