AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 27 Oct 2026

Segunda División
ValladolidValladolidWDWLL
Mon, 2 Nov 20262/1117:30UK
LeganesLeganesLLLLD

Valladolid vs Leganes corners prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Under 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined55.6%
Over 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined44.4%

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 9.5 corners44.4%

Corners

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Corner counts follow pressure and wide play, below are the model total-corner probabilities. It leans to Valladolid.

Total corners

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
7.5 corners 69.2% 30.8%
8.5 corners 56.9% 43.2%
9.5 corners 44.4% 55.6%
10.5 corners 32.8% 67.2%
11.5 corners 23.1% 76.9%
12.5 corners 15.4% 84.6%

Who wins the corner count

Valladolid
61.3%
Level
10.5%
Leganes
28.2%

Team corners lines

Valladolid

Over 3.5
75.1%
Over 4.5
60.0%
Over 5.5
44.6%

Leganes

Over 3.5
52.2%
Over 4.5
34.6%
Over 5.5
20.9%

Corner handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Valladolid's; Leganes gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Valladolid line Valladolid Leganes
-3.5 28.4% 71.6%
-1.5 49.9% 50.1%
-0.5 61.3% 38.7%
+0.5 71.8% 28.2%
ValladolidValladolid

Corner trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Valladolid at home and Leganes away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

LeganesLeganes
Statistic
Valladolid
Leganes
Corners won per game at this venue
5.2
2.6

Corners conceded per game at this venue
3.8
6.8

First-half corners won per game
2.6
2.3

Second-half corners won per game
2.3
1.1

Matches with more corners than the opponent
45.5%
30.0%

Matches with corner data
11
10

Bar scales · Corners per game: 0–10 · Recorded rate (%): 0–100. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Corners accuracy

How our Corners calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

54.0%Best Corners call, hit rate
0.0095Calibration error
50,938Matches graded

In 21,932 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Corners actually happened 47.7% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Corners calls

Our most recent Corners calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 55.9%✓ 52.1%✓ 53.5%✓ 50.6%✓ 53.9%✗ 51.1%✗ 50.7%✗ 58.3%✓ 55.7%✗ 59.5%
5 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Under 9.5 55.9%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Over 9.5 52.1%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Under 9.5 53.5%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Under 9.5 50.6%Hit
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Under 9.5 53.9%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 9.5 corners at 44.4%, its strongest read on the Corners market. The total-corners ladder runs from 69.2% for over 7.5 to 15.4% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 44.4%. Head to head on corners, Valladolid are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 61.3%, with a level count at 10.5%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.

In-depth analysis

By team, Valladolid over 4.5 corners sits at 60.0% and Leganes at 34.6%. This season Valladolid have averaged 4.8 corners won a game and Leganes 3.4.

Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. The track record is public, misses included.

44.4%Over 9.5 corners
61.3%Most corners: Valladolid
60.0%Valladolid over 4.5 corners
34.6%Leganes over 4.5 corners
50.0%Odd corner total

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 44.4% on Corners. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Territory ReaderValladolid are the pick to win the corner count at 61.3%, territory tends to follow the side forcing the play.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 9.5 corners: over sits at 44.4%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
ValladolidValladolid

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

LeganesLeganes
Statistic
Valladolid
Leganes
corners won per game
4.8
3.4

corners conceded per game
3.6
6.1

Bar scales · Corners per game: 0–10. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many corners in Valladolid vs Leganes?
The model rates over 9.5 total corners at 44.4% for Valladolid vs Leganes.
Which team will win the corner count in Valladolid vs Leganes?
The model rates Valladolid to win the corner count at 61.3%, with a level count at 10.5%.
How many corners do Valladolid and Leganes average this season?
Valladolid have won 4.8 corners a game this season and Leganes 3.4.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

Segunda DivisiónValladolid fixtures and statsLeganes fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.