AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

La Liga
ValenciaValenciaLWLDD
Full time1-2Sat, 24 Oct 202624/1017:30UK22°C · Clearing
VillarrealVillarrealLWWLD

Valencia 1-2 Villarreal corners: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Under 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined51.4%
Over 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined48.6%

Result

Valencia1-2Villarreal
15 cornersValencia 6, Villarreal 9
Under 9.5

We called Under 9.5 at 51.4% and it missed (15 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 9.5 corners48.6%

Corners

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Corners track territory and shot volume more than the scoreline, below are the model total-corner probabilities. It leans to Valencia.

Total corners

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
7.5 corners 72.6% 27.4%
8.5 corners 60.9% 39.1%
9.5 corners 48.6% 51.4%
10.5 corners 37.0% 63.0%
11.5 corners 26.7% 73.3%
12.5 corners 18.4% 81.6%

Who wins the corner count

Valencia
55.6%
Level
10.7%
Villarreal
33.7%

Team corners lines

Valencia

Over 3.5
74.0%
Over 4.5
58.7%
Over 5.5
43.4%

Villarreal

Over 3.5
59.4%
Over 4.5
42.0%
Over 5.5
27.3%

Corner handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Valencia's; Villarreal gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Valencia line Valencia Villarreal
-3.5 24.6% 75.4%
-1.5 44.5% 55.5%
-0.5 55.6% 44.4%
+0.5 66.3% 33.7%
ValenciaValencia

Corner trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Valencia at home and Villarreal away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

VillarrealVillarreal
Statistic
Valencia
Villarreal
Corners won per game at this venue
3.3
7.3

Corners conceded per game at this venue
2.7
5.3

Matches with corner data
5
5

Bar scales · Corners per game: 0–10. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Corners accuracy

How our Corners calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

54.0%Best Corners call, hit rate
0.0095Calibration error
50,938Matches graded

In 21,932 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Corners actually happened 47.7% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Corners calls

Our most recent Corners calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 55.9%✓ 52.1%✓ 53.5%✓ 50.6%✓ 53.9%✗ 51.1%✗ 50.7%✗ 58.3%✓ 55.7%✗ 59.5%
5 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Under 9.5 55.9%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Over 9.5 52.1%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Under 9.5 53.5%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Under 9.5 50.6%Hit
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Under 9.5 53.9%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Over 9.5 corners at 48.6%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Across the lines, the model goes from 72.6% for over 7.5 to 18.4% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 48.6%. Between the two sides, Valencia are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 55.6%, with a level count at 10.7%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.

In-depth analysis

We publish the model, not a sure thing. We score every call against the result after the match.

48.6%Over 9.5 corners
55.6%Most corners: Valencia
58.7%Valencia over 4.5 corners
42.0%Villarreal over 4.5 corners
50.0%Odd corner total

Split by side, Valencia over 4.5 corners sits at 58.7% and Villarreal at 42.0%.

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 48.6% on Corners. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Territory ReaderValencia are the pick to win the corner count at 55.6%, corners follow pressure, and pressure follows the side with the ball in the final third.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 9.5 corners: over sits at 48.6%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
The RealistOver 9.5 is a coin-flip in the model, the honest read is low conviction, no strong lean.

FAQ

How many corners in Valencia vs Villarreal?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 9.5 total corners at 48.6% for Valencia vs Villarreal.
Which team will win the corner count in Valencia vs Villarreal?
Before kickoff, the model rated Valencia to win the corner count at 55.6%, with a level count at 10.7%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Corner predictions today

Related

La LigaValencia fixtures and statsVillarreal fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.