AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

La Liga
ValenciaValenciaLWLDD
Full time1-2Sat, 24 Oct 202624/1017:30UK22°C · Clearing
VillarrealVillarrealLWWLD

Valencia 1-2 Villarreal cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined60.2%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined39.8%

Result

Valencia1-2Villarreal
6 yellow cardsValencia 3, Villarreal 3
2 red cardsValencia 1, Villarreal 1
Over 3.5No

We called Over 3.5 at 60.2% and it landed (6 in the match). We called No at 86.9% and it missed (2 in the match).

Model read

A moderate lean, nothing emphatic.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Moderate

Over 3.5 cards60.2%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Alejandro Quintero Gonzalez

Recorded match referee.

Alejandro Quintero Gonzalez in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 15 5
Goals 3.13 4.00
Yellow cards 4.80 4.00
Red cards 1.00 1.20
Corners 9.9 11.2
Fouls 25.1 25.8
Both teams scored 67% 80%
Over 2.5 goals 67% 100%
Home wins 27% 40%
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
24 Oct 2026 Valencia vs Villarreal 1-2 3 Yes 8 2 15 27
21 Oct 2026 Levante vs Ath Bilbao 3-1 4 Yes 3 1 12 25
10 Oct 2026 Alaves vs Ath Madrid 1-2 3 Yes 3 1 10 25
5 Sep 2026 Vallecano vs Santander 3-2 5 Yes 5 2 15 27
23 Aug 2026 Elche vs Barcelona 0-5 5 No 1 0 4 25
19 Dec 2025 Valencia vs Mallorca 1-1 2 Yes 5 0 15 22
7 Dec 2025 Real Madrid vs Celta 0-2 2 No 7 3 9 18
23 Nov 2025 Oviedo vs Vallecano 0-0 0 No 3 2 11 24
2 Nov 2025 Levante vs Celta 1-2 3 Yes 5 1 8 22
4 Oct 2025 Ath Bilbao vs Mallorca 2-1 3 Yes 11 1 9 29

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Valencia vs Villarreal. It tips Villarreal for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 78.4% 21.6%
3.5 cards 60.2% 39.8%
4.5 cards 41.3% 58.7%
5.5 cards 25.4% 74.6%

Who picks up more cards

Valencia
36.2%
Level
19.6%
Villarreal
44.2%

Team cards lines

Valencia

Over 1.5
58.7%
Over 2.5
32.4%

Villarreal

Over 1.5
64.1%
Over 2.5
38.1%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Valencia's; Villarreal gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Valencia line Valencia Villarreal
-1.5 19.9% 80.1%
-0.5 36.2% 63.8%
+0.5 55.8% 44.2%
+1.5 73.8% 26.2%

Red card

Any red card13.1%
Valencia red card6.1%
Villarreal red card7.5%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 70.2% 29.8%
22.5 fouls 56.5% 43.5%
24.5 fouls 42.5% 57.5%
ValenciaValencia

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Valencia at home and Villarreal away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

VillarrealVillarreal
Statistic
Valencia
Villarreal
Cards per game at this venue
·
2.3

Opponent cards per game at this venue
·
3.0

Matches with card data
1
4

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 10,239 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.7% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 60.2%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 78.4% for over 2.5 to 25.4% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 41.3%. On the card count, Villarreal are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 44.2%, with a level count at 19.6%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, Valencia over 1.5 cards sits at 58.7% and Villarreal at 64.1%. A red card for either side is rated at 13.1% (Valencia 6.1%, Villarreal 7.5%).

We publish the model, not a sure thing. We score every call against the result after the match.

60.2%Over 3.5 cards
13.1%Any red card
44.2%Most cards: Villarreal
58.7%Valencia over 1.5 cards
64.1%Villarreal over 1.5 cards
56.5%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 60.2% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 13.1%, unlikely, and priced as such.
The DisciplinarianVillarreal are the pick to collect more cards at 44.2%, bookings follow the side defending under pressure.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 4.5 cards: over sits at 41.3%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.

FAQ

How many cards in Valencia vs Villarreal?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 60.2% for Valencia vs Villarreal.
Will there be a red card in Valencia vs Villarreal?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 13.1%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Valencia vs Villarreal?
Before kickoff, the model rated Villarreal to pick up more cards at 44.2%, with a level count at 19.6%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

La LigaValencia fixtures and statsVillarreal fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.