AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

Eredivisie
UtrechtUtrechtDWLWW
Full time1-1Sat, 24 Oct 202624/1015:30UK
ZwolleZwolleDLLLW

Utrecht 1-1 PEC Zwolle cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined67.3%
Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined32.7%

Result

Utrecht1-1Zwolle
4 yellow cardsUtrecht 2, Zwolle 2
0 red cardsUtrecht 0, Zwolle 0
Under 3.5No

We called Under 3.5 at 67.3% and it missed (4 in the match). We called No at 87.4% and it landed (0 in the match).

Model read

A moderate lean, nothing emphatic.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Moderate

Over 3.5 cards32.7%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Martijn Vos

Recorded match referee.

Martijn Vos in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 13 3
Goals 2.85 Not available
Yellow cards 4.46 Not available
Red cards 0.54 Not available
Corners 10.5 Not available
Fouls 21.1 Not available
Both teams scored 77% Not available
Over 2.5 goals 54% Not available
Home wins 15% Not available
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
24 Oct 2026 Utrecht vs Zwolle 1-1 2 Yes 4 0 9 19
20 Sep 2026 Nijmegen vs Go Ahead Eagles 1-1 2 Yes 2 0 12 14
28 Aug 2026 Groningen vs For Sittard 2-3 5 Yes 7 0 9 16
3 May 2026 Sparta Rotterdam vs Go Ahead Eagles 2-2 4 Yes 6 1 14 21
12 Apr 2026 Zwolle vs Excelsior 2-2 4 Yes 1 0 7 23
22 Mar 2026 Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar 3-0 3 No 2 0 9 24
28 Feb 2026 Heerenveen vs Sparta Rotterdam 2-1 3 Yes 5 0 11 16
1 Feb 2026 Volendam vs Go Ahead Eagles 1-1 2 Yes 10 1 11 23
5 Dec 2025 Excelsior vs Groningen 0-2 2 No 5 2 10 19
7 Nov 2025 Twente vs Telstar 0-0 0 No 6 2 12 17

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Utrecht vs Zwolle. The model leans toward Zwolle for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 54.8% 45.2%
3.5 cards 32.7% 67.3%
4.5 cards 16.7% 83.3%
5.5 cards 7.4% 92.6%

Who picks up more cards

Utrecht
30.1%
Level
24.3%
Zwolle
45.6%

Team cards lines

Utrecht

Over 1.5
36.0%
Over 2.5
13.6%

Zwolle

Over 1.5
47.9%
Over 2.5
22.2%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Utrecht's; Zwolle gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Utrecht line Utrecht Zwolle
-1.5 12.8% 87.2%
-0.5 30.1% 69.9%
+0.5 54.4% 45.6%
+1.5 76.3% 23.7%

Red card

Any red card12.6%
Utrecht red card3.0%
Zwolle red card9.9%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 64.5% 35.5%
22.5 fouls 49.5% 50.5%
24.5 fouls 35.1% 64.9%

Recent referees

The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.

Team Referee Games Cards/g Team cards/g
Utrecht J. Kooij 2 3.0 2.0

Swipe to see all referee stats →

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 7,352 matches we rated like this one (30–40%), Cards actually happened 40.0% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 32.7%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 54.8% for over 2.5 to 7.4% for over 5.5, with over 2.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 54.8%. Between the two sides, Zwolle are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 45.6%, with a level count at 24.3%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.

In-depth analysis

For the team lines, Utrecht over 1.5 cards sits at 36.0% and Zwolle at 47.9%. A red card for either side is rated at 12.6% (Utrecht 3.0%, Zwolle 9.9%). Utrecht’s most frequent referee this season, J. Kooij, has averaged 3.0 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff.

Every figure here is what the model thinks, not advice. We score every call against the result after the match.

32.7%Over 3.5 cards
12.6%Any red card
45.6%Most cards: Zwolle
36.0%Utrecht over 1.5 cards
47.9%Zwolle over 1.5 cards
49.5%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 32.7% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Referee WatcherJ. Kooij, Utrecht’s most frequent referee this season, averages 3.0 cards a game. These historical averages do not identify this match’s referee.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 12.6%, unlikely, and priced as such.
The DisciplinarianZwolle are the pick to collect more cards at 45.6%, bookings follow the side defending under pressure.

FAQ

How many cards in Utrecht vs Zwolle?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 32.7% for Utrecht vs Zwolle.
Will there be a red card in Utrecht vs Zwolle?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 12.6%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Utrecht vs Zwolle?
Before kickoff, the model rated Zwolle to pick up more cards at 45.6%, with a level count at 24.3%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

More Eredivisie, Cards

Feyenoord vs Fortuna Sittard cards predictionHeerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen cards predictionPSV Eindhoven vs Willem II cards predictionAjax vs AZ Alkmaar cards predictionCambuur vs Go Ahead Eagles cards predictionPEC Zwolle vs Den Haag cards prediction

Cards predictions today

Related

EredivisieUtrecht fixtures and statsPEC Zwolle fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.