Serie A
Udinese vs 
Como Cards
Result
Settled, final score 1-1. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 56.0%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 75.4% for over 2.5 to 21.6% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 56.0%. Head to head on cards, Como are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 42.1%, with a level count at 20.4%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 75.4% | 24.6% |
| 3.5 cards | 56.0% | 44.0% |
| 4.5 cards | 36.9% | 63.1% |
| 5.5 cards | 21.6% | 78.4% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
57.0%
30.5%
60.3%
33.8%
Card handicap
| Udinese line | Udinese | Como |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 20.3% | 79.7% |
| -0.5 | 37.4% | 62.6% |
| +0.5 | 57.9% | 42.1% |
| +1.5 | 76.1% | 24.0% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 78.1% | 22.0% |
| 22.5 fouls | 66.4% | 33.6% |
| 24.5 fouls | 53.4% | 46.6% |
This season (2025/26)
2.0Udinese cards per game13.7Udinese fouls per game2.2Como cards per game13.4Como fouls per gameBookings are a lower-liquidity market, so calibration matters most here, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Udinese vs Como. Slightly more cards are projected for Como for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
56.0%Over 3.5 cards18.3%Any red card57.0%Udinese over 1.5 cards60.3%Como over 1.5 cards66.4%Over 22.5 foulsSplit by side, Udinese over 1.5 cards sits at 57.0% and Como at 60.3%. A red card for either side is rated at 18.3% (Udinese 14.4%, Como 4.7%). This season Udinese have averaged 2.0 cards a game and Como 2.2.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Udinese vs Como?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 56.0% for Udinese vs Como.
Will there be a red card in Udinese vs Como?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 18.3%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Udinese vs Como?
Before kickoff, the model rated Como to pick up more cards at 42.1%, with a level count at 20.4%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 11,114 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 15 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Serie A, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.